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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (29721)	3/29/2006 11:50:52 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

<History says you are right but > All takes a backseat to Algo.

To: michael97123 who wrote (29721)	3/29/2006 12:27:41 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

It's too early to make that call. First we have no reason to think the FED will stop at one more rate hike except everyone says they should. From Briefing.com: In the wake of yesterday's FOMC-driven decline, it appears that the market is attempting to rebound. Futures trade is signaling a higher start for both the S&P and Nasdaq. There is not much compelling news to account for the early disposition. As such, it is being attributed to the view that the market is still hoping that the Fed will raise rates just one more time. We do not necessarily concur, though. The lack of change in the FOMC's policy directive suggests that the Fed will raise rates at least one more time - and probably more. Second the rise in interest and effect that that has on the economy is something that is never well understood until we are looking at it in the rear view mirror. That's not to say the FED could not stop raising rates after one more hike. That's not to say that the economy couldn't keep expanding even if the FED continues to raise rates. Interest rates are still low historically. But we have a lot of debt laden consumers who are being effected badly by any rise in interest rates. Truth is the market has been doing great. It probably won't actually top until we get a lot more bullishness than is present now. Take a look at these charts on interest rates. In particular the second one down: investorshub.com Then correlate past economic slowdowns after short term rates have matched longer term rates and then they diverge into a more normal relationship: nber.org History is on the side of a slowing economy and a possible recession. The old maxim that this time is different may actually become reality but we won't know that either until enough time has passed. RtS