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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (5108)	3/30/2006 8:55:22 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 217577

TJ, I understand the concept of "on a day you don't sell, you buy" and I was very aware of that when QCOM reached its zenith at the dawn of Y2k. <his QCOM went from nowhere to nowhere in so many years, and now, as a result of the drama with NZD, he is 'wealthier' in some sense, but only if he sells QCOM, exits one soon to collapse currency regime and buys into a now collapsing currency regime, or, perhaps more wisely, opt out by voting with gold.> A few months later I was explaining to our broker that I had to be safe if QCOM was to go down to $50 a share [from then peak $200 and at the time of discussion, $160] and Globalstar go to zero as I expected some serious market fallout from Y2K and 1999 irrational exuberance. As it happened, QCOM carried on down to $23 a share, and I had to hurriedly dial 1-800-GETMEOUT to avoid total carnage. I decided the weight of evidence and sensible thought was on the side of time to escape. And a lucky escape it was. The reason for now selling at the peak was because of peculiar share-trading capital gains tax laws in New Zealand and that decision was well-judged too, though the drop was so much that if I'd been able to [and watching] to precisely pick tops and bottoms, I would have been as well to become a taxable share trader. But they don't ring a bell at the precise top or the absolute trough, so in general that's a wisdom of hindsight position to take. Apart from that very brief peak, I am up and up and up over the last 57 years, albeit at a gentlemanly C- rate rather than a Sage of Omaha compounding world record A++ rate. But, the central point you are making is quite right. We are coming up to world record financial shenanigans in fiat currency and economic activities with world record populations seething on the sidelines and on the field and in the rafters and outside the stadium and burrowing and flying. Something is going to happen and debtors have a traditional approach to debt, and it isn't necessarily enthusiastic lifetime commitment to repay. The traditional approach of the indigent is repudiation and bankruptcy, or escape, or other manoeuvre including war, involving no repayment. Especially when the Qi is looming in the distance, lurking just beyond the horizon. We won't go back to cave-dwelling Aztec days and totem clutching bonfire chanting and dancing with witch-doctor incantations. Mqurice