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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Noel de Leon who wrote (184392)	4/1/2006 4:33:28 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Do you see anti US policy from China? Sale of US reserves that China holds? No and why not? Because they can see that the US is a paper tiger China needs the US in order to grow its economy as well as provide jobs for its people. It's reported that China has to create 25 million new jobs per year in order to maintain its economic growth. The trade deficit with the US finances a good portion of that growth. Some 200 million Chinese jobs depend upon imports to the US of Chinese goods. So yeah... they pump money into US T-Bills and WHY? Because they are safer than their own financial instruments. Don't you think that if they could find a better and safe investment in their own markets, or even other countries, that they would do so? They AREN'T STUPID!! Chinese banks have been close to suffering the same fate as Japan, with a large number of unperforming loans. This is one of the reason they haven't floated Yuan. They are concerned that it would cause economic constriction, their currency would increase in value, and a recession might cause much of the outstanding internal debt in China to fail. So while China is a growing economy, it's VERY dependent upon export markets for its goods. 1) The long term effects of higher oil prices force the use of alternatives to oil. This, turn, forces ME oil prices down. No Noel.. the rising price of oil due to supply shortage, and growing global demand for energy is FINALLY making alternative fuels, and their relatively high cost of production, VIABLE. The price of oil is not likely to decline as supply continues to shrink, it will only find equilibrium with alternative sources of that particular form of energy. The only thing that will cause the price of oil to decline is an increase in supply, or a reduction in demand. The former is unlikely to occur, while the latter is a distinct possibility should the world collapse into global recession due to an artificial shortage (oil embargo.. etc) that sends ripples through the global economy that it has not prepared itself for. That's just basic economics Noel... Supply and Demand... Saudis don't work in SA, foreigners do. No doubt.. But many Saudis DO work.. They just don't want to do the dirty and low paying jobs. But guess what? There are only so many higher paying and white collar jobs that can be created. Someone has to do the dirty work and Saudis have been conditioned to believe they are beneath that. So the Saudis have the burden of creating "acceptable" jobs for their people.., a task that is FAR MORE DIFFICULT to do. And failing in this accomplishment, or cutting back on stipends to young adults is going to create socio-economic pressures that might lead to a fall of the Saudi government (who are widely seen as corrupt and elitist with that society). There is a wide spread need among Iraqis to westernize their country. They come from all walks of life and sects. Iraqi refugees and returning Danes(prior to the invasion) all agree on that. But they want Iraqi solutions not US solutions. I guess you didn't recognize the deep contradiction in your statement. Iraqis want westernization, yet want an Iraqi solution rather than one from a Western nation (the US). You cannot paint all of Iraqi society with the broad brush of wanting westernization. Their is TREMENDOUS opposition to westernization amongst many tribal leaders and their membership. Because the manner in which the current system is established provides tremendous power to the tribal leadership. Power that would be challenged if such vile western ideals as democracy and accountable government were introduced. God forbid that tribal leaders might actually have to be popularly elected, rather than relying upon heredity, or being chosen by other powerful tribal elders. The only manner in which Iraq is going to modernize is to have a government that is accountable to its people via a ballot box. A decentralization of political power in which tribal leaders are not able to set themselves up as "little kings" and war lords. it's going to require a movement towards educating more and more Iraqi and Arab youths that they are individuals and thus, have a right to assert their desires rather than being forced to pledge their loyalty to someone who's not looking out for their interests. Now is this going to happen overnight? Hell no. Are some going to fight, or resist? Sure. But transitions in a society take time and the journey begins with the first step. If that step is never taken, the move of Islamo-Fascism will take its OWN steps, playing on sectarian and religious ties that fit in VERY WELL with the current tribal structure of Arab society. So face some facts... "Westernization" is not desired by all Iraqis. But Democracy, and government accountable to its people, is a UNIVERSAL DESIRE OF MANKIND. The only thing preventing the people from expressing that desire is the domination and corruption by powerful elites who only purpose is to deny the rights of the individual as a human being. They desire that someone else's rights be established and granted by themselves, as the power elite. Hawk