Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cruzbay who wrote (191552)	4/1/2006 9:29:25 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

"and would love to continue to hear how fellow board members read the tea leaves." Revenue share trend is the most reasonable Q1 indicator that I can come up with. As in my recent post to Buggi, this sequential (% revenue share) has been accelerating throughout 2005 from 0.36 Q4/04 to Q1/05, to 0.48 in Q2, to 1.44 in Q3 and most recently to 3.36 in Q4. Note: 1) Despite seasonality, Q1/05 saw a gain over Q4/04. Causes me to believe we'll see a gain in Q1/06 over Q1/04's 3.36 to keep the trend alive. 2) INTC, in their most recent guidance acknowledged loss of share to AMD. That makes me believe that acceleration in %revenue share continued to increase in Q1, thus implying $1.5B in Q1 revenues. 3) Q1 marketing costs may be sequentially reduced to offset any depreciation increase associated with Fab 36. 4) Richer Q1 mix resulting in ASP increase. 5) Comments in recent Chartered article, suggesting that AMD product may well be spoken for to year end and that the market greatly misunderstands just how great an impact AMD is currently having in the marketplace. 6) OEM delivery shortfalls indicating very tight top end supply. 7) The Dell card! AMD's current trend gets them to 30% revenue share in 2007 and that's without Dell!

To: cruzbay who wrote (191552)	4/1/2006 3:41:41 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 275872

CB, Re: I appreciate the board's insights, and would love to continue to hear how fellow board members read the tea leaves.> I don't do tea leaves. Chicken guts are more my style. I ran over one of my neighbors guinea hens this morning. Not as good as standard chicken, but here's what I get. Intel stuffed the holy hell out of everybody including themselves in 4Q05 to make their numbers. That's per the Inq' article you posted, theinquirer.net and also per my opinion after listening to the INTC CC back in January. It's why I'm long INTC April puts which are now under water.(Didn't have a chicken then either.) Hen says they'll be taking under utilization charges this Q. That used to be standard stuff and part of the reason why most CPU sales were made in the last month of each Q. It's also a good reason why Handelsbanken Capital Markets said "WORLD SALES of PC processors fell by 28 per cent in January compared to the same month a year ago." In Q4'04 INTC just let their own inventory build. Didn't stuff the channel. Guinea hen says AMD didn't stuff the channel last Q but is weak on that point. While there is substitutability between AMD and INTC chips for the finished goods market it's less, in guinea hens opinion, than it used to be. Re: <For one thing, if Q1 was already sold out from the beginning (as forecast by Hector's "flat to down"?), they couldn't pick up additional share even if available.> I'll paraphrase what I think you're saying. "AMD sold everything they could in Q405. Used inventory, and were at production limits. Couldn't sell more in Q1'06 'cause there ain't no more." That may be right in unit volume. I doubt it, but it may be. Surely they were up hard against production limits by the end of Q4. I'm pretty sure it's not true in terms of $ potential. The greatest increases in Q4'05, unit % wise, came from high end chips if I've got these things stirred right. No reason I can see why the same shouldn't occur in 1Q'06 but I'd need a goat to be sure. The guinea hen indicates Hector was saying "Manufacturer sales projections in the first two weeks of January have been softer than we thought they'd be but we think they'll come on OK by the end of Q." IMO that'd be consistent with manufacturers stuffed with INTC chips thinking discount sales and pretty much full substitutability. There have been reports of some damn strong MOBO sales this Q. Also consistent with RACK saying sales of their AMD units went from 80% of unit volume to 90% in their last Q.(RACK reported in February IIRC.) Guy down the street has a rooster that's been waking me up in the morning. If I learn more I'll post it. -tgp