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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (131536)	4/2/2006 9:05:35 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

FA, FA.... Agree with you that deeply lower rates would probably be a sign that Big Ben B. is launching his choppers, trying to repeat the performance of a few years ago... when the Fed was able to fight off the deflationary danger. But - the fact that we see the danger doesn't mean that we will be able to avoid it. The world is different today. Real Estate prices helped fight off Deflation last time around - but at this time they themselves are overinflated and may be ready for a decline. The public is overborrowed and overspent... and the real family incomes - as I recently read - have been declining. It takes two to tango... For inflationary mentality to take hold prices must go up - but so should the public's capacity to... pay them. Raising prices and shrinking incomes do not imply inflation -- they imply a lowering standard of living. In fact, the best way to set off a deflationary episode is to "fight" inflation just at the moment when the real danger is the opposite. Going back to rates - yes, over the past few years they have been climbing up - but the long term down trend is still not broken: stockcharts.com[f,a]maclyyay[d19910303,20061203][pb50!b200][vc60][J70968864,Y]&listNum=1