To: Yogizuna who wrote (4623 ) 4/4/2006 7:05:01 PM From: Louis V. Lambrecht Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 48092 Seen this interview of GFMS' Paul Walker?mineweb.net Hate it when people say "this time is different". DAVID SHAPIRO: Paul, you mention their buy-to-hold strategy. But we’re having interest rates rising in the United States, looking to go over 5%, Europe 3% and upwards. Traditionally, the higher interest rates have gone, the less inclined people have been to hold metal, simply because there is no return. Yet we are seeing metal prices go up. Are not interest rates putting a ceiling on where the prices can go? PAUL WALKER: Well, you are absolutely right, and under normal market circumstances, that’s precisely what you expect. But, if you like, the hill the gold and the commodity complex has to climb in the higher interest-rate environment, makes them, all other things being equal, less attractive. It makes it more attractive to short the market. What I think we are seeing at the moment is that higher interest rates, especially this recent announcement in the US, is being interpreted – and I personally think correctly – as a sign of the weakness of where the US is at, not a sign of the strength of the underlying economy. The interest-rate differentials have to be maintained with the euro, the yen and other currencies to keep the flow of funds into the US. And I think it’s probably one of those factors that’s been weighing on people’s minds. I think it was yesterday the interest-rise was announced, and I think the market is taking that as a sign, well, things aren’t that rosy in the US, these imbalances that we are seeing – we saw record trade in balance last quarter – this is all suggestive of these imbalances finally reaching sort of critical point. So, contrary to the normal market circumstances of higher interest rates, all other things being equal, it should put pressure on commodity prices. I think people are taking this as a sign that the prices should be going up because of the potential problems with the US dollar. My cat's habit: would not walk on the keyboards, but would walk before the screen unless I move the cursor's mouse on the screen. Then, it would lay down on the hand and the mouse. When I try to reach the keyboard, it tries to catch my hand. Hence: either the monitor is masked, or the keyboard is not accessible. I said I've given up day-trading for some phoney reasons. Now you know the real one.<g>