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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (51317)	4/4/2006 1:38:02 AM
From: Schnullie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Frankly, my DSL short is tasting a little bitter. The builders have, for the most part, been a cakewalk. I haven't done well with puts or shorting any of the lenders though, except FNM. But I think just a little more patience is in order. I see three major forces undermining the housing market now: (1) increasing short & long-terms rates of course [at this point the 2-yr note is probably more important than the 10](2) $2 trillion worth of ARMs convert in the next 20 months, and (3) the base of the Ponzi pyramid....first-time homeowners....are effectively priced out of the market at ANY rate. These forces converged in the last 3 - 6 months...I suspect the results will become visible shortly. I feel pretty good about my shorts.