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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: phatbstrd who wrote (191887)	4/4/2006 11:40:43 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

phat, no one in their right mind doubts that AMD will continue to take market share through Q2 since Intel has nothing new coming in that timeframe and AMD is adding dual core notebook parts, DDR2 notebook parts (which lower power consumption). Also, Intel doesn't have any 64-bit notebook CPUs until the end of the year (best case), so as we get closer and closer to Windows Vista, this becomes more and more of a liability. In the Q2 timeframe, AMD is also adding CPUs with virtualization for servers and desktop and the DDR2 interface of the new parts will lower manufacturers' memory costs. Some time in Q3 Intel will begin to ship a much more competitive desktop part (Conroe) and server part. Some think that could absolutely lower AMD's desktop and server market shares, but I consider this impossible for Q3. First, the computer market has momentum and mindshare that have shifted to AMD. Second, the market will still be flooded with the less desirable P4's. Third, Intel will not change its production over to the new chips instantaneously. Fourth, in the server market momentum is even more formidable. I could see AMD losing a percent or two of desktop market share in Q4 if Intel can rapidly ramp up the new processors, but this should be more than compensated for by the fact that AMD has the only 64-bit notebook chip, and Vista (consumer version) is out in early 07, OEM even earlier. In 2007, AMD's next gen chip, the K8L on 65nm is released, probably very early, since "65nmm production" has just been confirmed to start in H2 2006, it takes 3 months from production start to product, and K8L is apparently the first product on 65nm process that Fab 36 will produce. The K8L should basically leapfrog over the Intel chips in performance, since it will include the additional floating point performance of Intel's Conroe, along with the AMD advantages of an on-chip memory controller and SOI fabrication. Petz