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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (5296)	4/4/2006 5:29:05 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218670

SoT, I'm always right. Here are oil production figures. <You tell yourself that oil is becoming more abundant; many oil companies don't agree with you > Note that production is currently at all-time highs. bp.com Note that reserve to production ratios are still near all-time highs - people don't go exploring for more unless there's a buck in it. Reserves are in good health. <Small cars are available now but it needs a decade or so for people to replace their large cars.> It doesn't take me a decade to buy a car. If my car is due to be dumped, it takes a few days to buy a new, incy wincy car. Same for everyone. If the Hummer goes over a cliff or gets crashed by a Mack, it can be replaced by a little car the next day. Also, we have two cars to choose from, and a motor scooter, bicycles, feet, bus or train. Often I take feet or the motor scooter. So, immediately, we, and millions of people, can avoid using fuel in the big comfy Camry [Hummer, SUV, V8]. BTW, which oil companies don't agree with me and the BP Statistical Review of World Energy? If they are that clueless, short their shares and make some money. Have you got links to those companies' comments? <As a matter of fact you've been assuring us that oil will go down in price ever since it was around $30. > Not so. When it was $60, I started ranting how it will go down. I guessed to $40, which it did [Ray Duray said not all oil went down to that price, to wheedle out of being wrong]. But I guess it will go down to $30 in 2004 dollars [you have to adjust for inflation]. Competition from other energy sources will see to that. Not to mention other effects such as population decline, limits to traffic jams, vehicle efficiency, taxes, and so on. Quite right: <I probably need not add that with the degradation of the USD, the USD price of oil is bound to increase greatly along with the prices of paper clips, horse manure,what have you, as long as we measure in US dollars.> Financial relativity theory is alive and well, except that Made in China and Produced in India effects cause weird effects, as do productivity gains, so it's not clear-cut that US$ prices will increase as much as you might think. Mqurice