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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: etchmeister who wrote (29825)	4/5/2006 9:00:58 AM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 95622

<My question is why CSFB, BofA, GS still bother they note that LRCX has very limited exposure to INTC; this is pure bullshit - the orderpeak will weigh on LRCX like it does on its peers;> Because LRCX currently is by far the mainstream sector stock with the most price and execution risk built in. Therefore it must be supported until "they" either get out of the 'supporting' trades or get net short. It is a long way from mid $40's back to under $20 when things turn south for LRCX. Even more than a complete collapse of NLVS to cash value for example.

To: etchmeister who wrote (29825)	4/5/2006 11:11:57 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95622

Etch, There has been some "movement" in their predictions over the past year or so. However, it is hard to keep track of their exact predictions as they upgrade every few weeks. The important point is what they are predicting now, which is a peaking of semi-equip orders in the next few months. We have had a slight rise in Bookings recently which can be seen by looking at Gottfried's charts or the tabular data listed in, Message 22267947 Compared to past cycles, the amount of increase the last few months is quite small. CSFB is predicting the numbers might increase for the next 2 to 4 months, but then that is it - that is the peak - from there the trend is downward. With continued growth in semiconductor output for 06, 07, and 08, I find that scenario hard to believe, but what I believe is not important. The likes of the CSFB's of the world are what is driving the market. Don