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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (5325)	4/5/2006 6:29:48 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218768

hello seeker, read the article, and out here, it is commonly recognized that: (a) the Israeli lobby is strong (b) there is little joint discussion of the root issues between the two sides and between their respective supporting camps (c) as much emotion involved (d) so all tactics used on both sides for temporary advantages (e) there is no strategy for resolution (f) there will only be resolution by exhaustion (g) for one side it is forever, and for the other, same (h) the issues between Israel and Palestine is effectively therefore forever (i) both are suffering groups, when objectively viewed by outsiders (j) when kids die on either side, it becomes difficult to see any of the right on the other side, and whoever did the murder on the other side is evil, and (k) the folks out here, probably as the folks everywhere, see no solution (l) besides the rights and wrongs of the situation, the oil equation obviously adds another layer of complications, triggering big power interventions from various quarters supporting one or the other side, and sometimes both, depending on the specific issue (m) the big power interventions prolong and complicates what is already forever and complicated I actually have a Israel-resident Jewish uncle by way of my (half) brother. The man visits China every-so-often, and he sees no solution. I have an American Palestinian buddy, and I cannot say he sees any solutions. Both are emotional about the issues. On media coverage, I was once told by ex-CNN chief anchor aawsat.com in the real sitting next to me at lunch of a conference he MC-ed that he quit CNN because he did not agree with top management on an edict forbidding reporting anything negative about Israel. The conflict between Israel and Palestine is a bit distant for East/SE Asia, but for the issue of oil. Unlike America, we do not have anything remotely resembling a faith-based stake in the conflict, and so our objectivity is less impaired; even so, we do not see good solutions that can be naturally arrived at via discussions. We in the aggregate do see the right and wrong of each specific incident, but over all, in the summation, there is not a collective call based on right / wrong. Perhaps it is not an issue about right / wrong, but a fundamental question of survival when viewed from each side. If so, then even more complicated. How will it all end? Dunno. Maybe by some disaster or outrage, involving some or all of all sides and some/all supporters. When will it all end? Again, dunno. Probably when the nearby oil runs out. Which side will win? Once more, dunno. Perhaps, depending on objective definition of 'win', both sides. Chugs, J

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (5325)	4/6/2006 9:04:11 AM
From: Slagle	Respond to of 218768

Seeker, Thanks for bringing to my attention that article posted by Joe S. Pack. Very interesting read. But honestly, I really don't believe that there is anything there that many Americans, especially REAL American conservatives (and I'm don't mean the current crop of Dubya's followers) but maybe what you might call the Robert F. Taft conservatives, haven't known for decades. And it really goes back way before 1947. Real American conservatives, call them isolationists if you wish, had a "live and let live" philosophy with regards to the rest of the world. But others, many of them the same folks who had worked for generations to create the Israel we have today, had a more "European" outlook. This tendency brought us into two world wars and is the primary reason I am the subject of a global empire today. Sad, but I don't think anything at all can be done about it. Slagle

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (5325)	4/23/2006 12:35:18 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218768

Look please my points in this problem. I think you're doing the right thing. Investing where there is production and putting non-OECD people to work for you. QUOTE from: Message 22381705 I just retired earlier this year at 46. I ran through as many retirement planning tools as I can find on the Web (Fidelity, Vanguard, smart money, money etc. etc.) before making the decision. It is as confusing as the NG market this year. <<ELMAT: He's doing this exercise AFTER retiring>> It is best to figure out what your needs after factor in the fixed source of income. Then you take your yearly need x20 (5% draw a year) to x40 (2.5% draw a year). So if I need $80K a year and $20 K come from S.S. and pension than the yearly need is 60K. <<ELMAT: This points to deflation. As more and more people retires under such conditions, any good costing a dollar today, must go back to 25 cents. As they stop working, tax payer disappears. Governments fo not have how to raise revenues. As governments' money dries, they tiurn their focus into immigrants, China unfair trade...>> One would need 1.2M to 2.4M. The difference multipliers take into account of the market fluctuation. All these tool predicate on a set inflation rate, a set return on your nest egg and a set tax rate. Fidelity is the most advance and use the Monte Carlos Simulation which use the actual data from the market (in term of yearly return) and give you a percentage of success ratio (40x is for 45 Year of life expectancy and 90% confidence. Shorter life expectancy will lower the multiplier). <<ELMAT: And life expectancy is going up and up...>> After running all these different tools, my conclusion is that I am playing with future number that I can't predict (who is to say that we are going to have 3% inflation for the next 20 years? what about market return of average 9% for a blend of bond/big cap/international stock for the next 30 years?). The best thing to do is to take a reasonable monthly needs (probably base on your actual expense of the last couple year), throw in some emergency fund (100k to 200K or whatever), then take a multiplier of 20 to 30 depending on how conservative you want. And use it as your target for retirement fund. After retirement, if thing don't do as well as you plan then spend less, find a part time job, move to Mexico etc. <<ELMAT: Things always do not go as well as you think. Spending will be less, push deflation. Too late to move to Mexico. Find part time job. The guy should find part time job straight away. Conserve cash. Move to Brazil. Get some retiring doctors. Set up clinic. Like Bumrungsrad Hospital in Thailand. Those guys need to do as much thinking as they could NOW. That's what Elmat 53 and still working with no plas to retire- is doing.>> If things do better than you think, save some for rainy day and enjoy some of the spoil.The point is that we are flexible once you pass a certain spending minimum. We can adjust base on what we have. Who is to say that I will live to 90? I certainly don't think so, but retirement plan calculation seems to think that I must plan it that way?? <<ELMAT: The brain is a funny thing. To keep the guy sane, it pictures things going well. But it is only the imagination.>> <<<FACTS: Only productive investment can create wealth. Only where people can be put to work PROFITABLY like in China, is worth making productive invetsment. That's why the monye is going there. Only Mass migration for poor countries could make the OECD countries places worth of productive investment.>>