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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (5377)	4/6/2006 5:19:06 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 219121

Having panned for placer gold in California long ago, it is interesting to speculate what a $36,000 gold price would do. At 31.xx grams per troy ounce, that would mean over $1000 per gram. When the price of gold was $300, one gram would mean $10 for days work, it would now mean $1000 a day - a pretty good take for one day. It would also mean that someone who bought five one ounce coins last month for under $300 could pay off their mortgage...

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (5377)	4/8/2006 6:39:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219121

Now, Maurice, I see the possible reasons for your uniqueness, why you prefer QCOM to solidity, and the USD to NZD ... it is all a question of relativity, between the USA and NZ, perhaps, and economic astuteness quotient of your wastrel neighbors, in the aggregate ... may the Force be with you for you will need it ;0) Recommendation: Buy gold! frontlinethoughts.com An Island of Deficits Quick, which country runs the larger trade deficit, New Zealand or the United States? In percentage terms, the surprising answer is, New Zealand. The US had a record 7% (of GDP) trade deficit in the fourth quarter of 2005. But New Zealand saw its deficit hit 8.9% of GDP. Look at the chart below: Writes Blackman: "But a quintessential star performer that has benefited from strong commodity prices in the last few years provided a warning that could be the beginning of a global market ripple effect. After 21 consecutive quarters of gains, New Zealand surprised economists both at home and abroad with the report that its economy had contracted 0.1% in Q4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had previously forecast a growth rate of 2.4% for the year and 0.4% for the quarter. There was little doubt that few, including the New Zealand Reserve Bank governor, expected such a rapid drop. And New Zealand was not the only trouble spot." New Zealand has seen its currency drop more than 18% in the year ending March 2006. This should actually be expected, as large trade deficits have in the past eventually resulted in falling currency values. Everywhere, so far, except in the United States, where the dollar's reserve status and a powerhouse economy have kept the dollar higher than economic theory and history would have predicted. There is another similarity between the US and New Zealand. "Housing prices jumped 75% between late 2001 and 2005. Even with 2-year fixed rates at 8.3% and floating rates of 9.6% as of January 2006, home prices were still appreciating at nearly 15% annually at the end of 2005." And household debt? Household debt in NZ has risen from 100% of income in 1999 to 150% by the end of 2005, the majority of which is mortgage debt. Rising debt. Soaring housing prices. Monster trade deficits. A rapidly falling currency. But investors are not worried. Note that the NZ stock market has risen nearly 10% in 2006. It's a small island of 4,000,000 people (one of my favorite places in the world, by the way!). How does what happens in a country that small, with less than the population of a few counties in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, mean anything for the US? The real and true answer is, we don't know. Maybe it means nothing. Just as we were told the problems with the Thai baht meant nothing. But it is the possible connections that we should be constantly thinking about.