more oil drum...
Darwinian on Thu Apr 06 at 5:51 PM EST
I found this article most interesting.
news.ninemsn.com.au
Besides telling us that OPEC production is down in March, it says that Haradh, Saudi Arabia's newest field, is pumping full flow and producing 300,000 barrels per day. Haradh came on line just this year. It states that Saudi is now producing 9,450,000 barrels per day, up 50,000 barrels from February.
However the devil is in the details. from April through September, according to the EIA, Saudi Arabia was producing at 9,600,000 barrels per day. Then for October, November and December Saudi Dropped to 9,500,000 barrels per day and was down another 100,000 barrels in January, and apparently February as well, fell to 9,400,000. But now they are up to 9,450,000 as Hardah comes on full flow at 300,000 barrels per day.
So what does this all mean. It means that even with a new field of 300,000 barrels per day Saudi Arabia is still in decline. The EIA estimated earlier that Saudi Arabia's existing fields are declining at six to eight hundred thousand barrels per day per year. This means that Saudi will need a new Haradh ever five months just to stay even.
But they have no such new projects in the pipeline for several years yet, if then, if ever again.
Ron Patterson
Pensacola, Fl
ryvr on Thu Apr 06 at 7:59 PM EST
When I cited your figure of Saudi Arabia declining 600,000 to 800,000 barrels per day per year downthread, Robert R. said:
I think this interpretation is a mistake in comparing a period of high demand (summer) versus the winter season which is of lower demand.
Do we have any more info on what time period or information EIA based the estimate? Links/reference?
[ Parent ]
Robert Rapier on Thu Apr 06 at 8:30 PM EST
I have the link:
eia.doe.gov
You will notice that it is not unusual for production to drop in the winter and then come back up during the summer driving season. In fact, there was even an annual production decline from 2001-2002, but production was increased in 2003-2005. You can see from this that trying to predict a decline by extrapolating just a few months would have failed in the past. You really need more data before you can say "Saudi is in decline".
RR
[ Parent ]
Darwinian on Thu Apr 06 at 9:17 PM EST
Well no Robert, that was not the link at all. Again, the link is:
eia.doe.gov
And a very good Energy Bulletin article on the subject:
energybulletin.net
Actually we do have enough data to say that Saudi Arabia is in decline. Have you read Matt Simmons' "Twilight in the Desert"? He supplies a mountain of data. Saudi Arabia produced an average of 9,900,000 barrels per day in 1980. Then they declined, mostly due to self imposed cutbacks, then began producing flat out again in 1991. They managed to produce an average of 9,550,000 barrels per day in 2005 but will not reach that level this year.
Saudi Arabia is definitely in decline.
Ron Patterson
[ Parent ]
Robert Rapier on Thu Apr 06 at 9:21 PM EST
I have read Twilight in the Desert, and his argument is not that they are in decline, but that they soon will be. I don't have a problem with that argument. But you are taking data and extrapolating it to suggest they are in decline now, when the production numbers show otherwise.
Again, here is the link showing their actual production month by month: eia.doe.gov
You can't conclude from that information that they are already in decline.
RR
[ Parent ]
Darwinian on Thu Apr 06 at 8:44 PM EST
ryvr, "per day per year" means they drop that much daily production each year. There are no seasons involved because "per year" includes all four seasons. But here is the EIA link and in it they give their source. Actually they say 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day. I just remembered incorrectly.
eia.doe.gov
"One challenge for the Saudis in achieving this objective is that their existing fields sustain 5 percent-12 percent annual "decline rates," (according to Aramco Senior Vice President Abdullah Saif, as reported in Petroleum Intelligence Weekly and the International Oil Daily) meaning that the country needs around 500,000-1 million bbl/d in new capacity each year just to compensate."
And notice that is from Aramco, that is straight from the horses mouth.
Ron Patterson
[ Parent ]
Robert Rapier on Thu Apr 06 at 9:07 PM EST
Well, that is quite different than saying that they are in decline, given that they have had the fields to produce that "500,000-1 million bbl/d in new capacity". In reality, as my link shows, Saudi has increased production year after year, except for a decline from 2001-2002, they have increased production every year. This, despite the fact that some of their fields are in decline.
RR
[ Parent ]
popple on Thu Apr 06 at 9:38 PM EST
T. Boone Pickens stated unequivically a few days ago we will max out at 85mbd. I understand he has a fair record.
[ Parent ]
Oil CEO on Thu Apr 06 at 10:00 PM EST
Yeah, unless you actually look at his record. Check out peakoildebunked.blogspot.com - there is excellent archiving here of people's "records."
[ Parent ]
popple on Thu Apr 06 at 10:09 PM EST
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Boone Pickens' bet on crude oil last year helped the Texas investor take home an estimated $1.5 billion."
That's good enough for me!
[ Parent ]
Oil CEO on Thu Apr 06 at 10:32 PM EST
I'm assuming you got part of that $1.5 billion.
[ Parent ]
smekhovo on Thu Apr 06 at 11:06 PM EST
Thanks very much for the article.
Who knows what is really happening at Haradh or on any other Saudi project? The important thing is that once again, Aramco has promised an increase in capacity and according to their own figures, there is no reason to believe they have delivered. And as Heading Out indicated, they have tacitly admitted that their previous statements about already existing unused capacity of theirs were -
terminological inexactitudes.
[ Parent ]
theoildrum.com |
