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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (49360)	4/7/2006 12:42:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Immigration proposals fail in Senate test vote By Caroline Daniel in Washington and Edward Alden in New York Published: April 6 2006 17:06 \| Last updated: April 7 2006 16:06 A compromise bill to overhaul US immigration law failed on Friday on its first test vote as the US Senate failed to breach the divide on measures to allow most of the country’s illegal immigrants to remain in the US legally. The failed vote came only a day after Senate appeared to have broken the stalemate on reform as complaints resurfaced that the bill would give an amnesty to illegal immigrants. The bipartisan compromise reached on Thursday was meant to pave the way for the most sweeping overhaul of US immigration laws in two decades, but it had to be reconciled with tough House legislation that offered no path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Immigration is an issue has divided the Republican party and triggered massive protests from hispanic groups across the US. On Thursday, Bill Frist, the Senate Republican leader, called the compromise proposals “a negotiated middle ground [that] has been put on the table which says that these 11m people who are here, undocumented people, illegal immigrants, are not a monolithic group”. The compromise proposals were drawn up by Republican Senators Chuck Hagel and Mel Martinez, was welcomed by Republican John McCain and Democrat Edward Kennedy, who in a rare move had worked across the partisan divide in Washington to support a future guestworker programme and allow current illegal immigrants a path to citizenship. Immigration deal repeats earlier flaws, say critics Click here Americans have faced a wrenching debate in recent weeks between those who want to deport illegal immigrants and beef up border security, and those who argue that the demand for labour in the US will continue to draw poor workers regardless of the penalties that are threatened. The new bill had aimed to avoid the appearance of conferring amnesty on illegal immigrants, allowing only those who have been in the US for more than five years to stay in the country to adjust to legal status. Failure to pass a Senate bill by the end of the week could torpedo the chances of immigration reform this year. But difficult negotiations with the House still remain. The House bill, which would make illegal immigration a felony and criminalise those who aided illegal immigrants, triggered a rally by 500,000 protestors in Los Angeles last month, the largest in the city’s history. More demonstrations are scheduled for Monday across the US. Under the Republican Senate proposal, illegal immigrants who have been in the US for more than five years – about two-thirds of the 11m – could switch to legal status without leaving the country if they met eight requirements, such as speaking English, having worked for at least three of the last five years and having paid all federal and state taxes. Illegal immigrants in the US for between two and five years could secure a temporary work visa but must first leave the country. They would be able to apply for legal status later and would have priority over other immigrants applying for green cards. Illegal immigrants in the country for fewer than two years would be forced to return home and apply for a temporary worker visa. The bill proposes allowing roughly 400,000 new gueast workers to come to the US each year. news.ft.com

To: Chispas who wrote (49360)	4/7/2006 12:47:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Iran ready for high-level talks, US resists [Iran wants talks with Bush. Bush refuses. Why? Because Bush does not want peace, he wants war. Mish] news.ft.com Tehran 'lobbies' for US talks By Guy Dinmore in Washington Published: April 7 2006 03:00 \| Last updated: April 7 2006 03:00 Iran has prepared a high-level delegation to hold talks with the US, but the Bush administration, which insists negotiations be limited to the subject of Iraq, is resisting a wide-ranging agenda, Iranian politicians have told the Financial Times. news.ft.com

To: Chispas who wrote (49360)	4/7/2006 2:16:27 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

San Diego the news on March's initial figures are in. Sales continue to be down 28% YOY and with inventory at over 18,200 as compared to 2000 units this time 2 years ago. realtytimes.com "Sales finished the month at 2,844 homes sold versus 3,885 sold in March 2005, down 28%. Based on the March pending sales of about 3,100, April is forecast to be down from last April's 4,134 by 25%. This downward trend in sales began in earnest in the last quarter and seems to be accelerating."

To: Chispas who wrote (49360)	4/7/2006 3:27:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Friday, April 07, 2006 Corn -. We started the week's demand side reports with Monday's weekly export inspection report showing 42.2 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export, up 6 m.b. from the week prior and 12 m.b. over a year ago. Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 659 t.m.t. of corn was sold last week, down 37% from the week prior and 39% below a strong four week average. I was surprised the number came in as low as it did but closer examination shows Asian sales were 450 t.m.t. about equal the week prior. They are our biggest market and clearly they were active and the lower sales came off last week big planted acreage report that had importers waiting to see the report first before committing. So, there are reasonable excuses for a soft week. Demand looks to continue strong into year end. Corn drifted lower Monday to Wednesday on weaker bean trends filling only about one cent of the chart gap left from the report of 2.27 to 2.35 on May futures but turned up hard Thursday as wheat prices surged on bullish weather reports. It is not just a followers rally but excitement by funds from last weeks planted acreage report suggesting 3.7 million less acres of corn will be planted this year. Monday at 7:30a central time we have our monthly USDA crop report, where adjustments in the carry over stocks are expected. Carry over or ending stocks are the amount of grain expected to be left over at the start of the new grain marketing year, September 1st, and the beginning of our fall harvest. It essentially is our grain savings account. The trade expects to see a cut in ending stocks on increased feed use and exports while corn to ethanol production is expected to be high it is still too early to project corn to ethanol as they are many new plants under construction with uncertain completion dates. The average pre-report trade guess is ending stocks at 2.259 billion bushels, down 92 m.b. from the March report. May corn's risk is down to the bottom of the chart gap 2.27 with a near term upside resistance of 2.50 resistance. Bean - Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 13.1 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export, down 12 m.b. from the week prior and 4 m.b. under a year ago. Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 354 t.m.t. of beans were sold last week up 61% from the week prior and 6% over a very weak four week average. The week prior number was the lowest in 5 months. Asian sales were 320 t.m.t. with China in for 71. On the surface it looks positive but the comparisons to averages continue to make it a reasonably poor sales number. Demand looks to remain weak well into May as South America's crop comes to harvest and flood the world market with cheap beans. After pulling down early week to our 5.58 support basis May futures, we rebounded Thursday on short covering. Beans look for a bearish monthly crop report Monday on a lower export projection. The average pre-report trade guess for our carryover stocks is at 574 m.b. up from 565 the month prior. the range of estimates run from 555 to 602 m.b. a close under 5.58 sets us up for 5.50 next week but longer term with good rains in April preparing soil moisture and a quick May planting pace we could see the record 76.8 m.a. to be planted and record domestic and world stocks carry May futures to 5.15 to 5.25. Wheat - The week's first report was Monday's weekly export inspection report showing 11.6 m.b. were inspected for near term export down 4 m.b. from the week prior and 1 m.b. under a year ago. Monday's crop condition report put this year's winter crop now emerging at 38% in good to excellent condition, down from 68% a year ago. Key producers read like this Kansas 38% G-E versus 74% a year ago, Oklahoma 11% versus 70 and Texas 7% versus 69% G-E last year. clearly our western plains wheat states are challenged now to find perfect weather through April into early May in hopes quality can improve so demand turns to the US for quality milling wheat and if not we look to another year of poor demand as we will remain a third or fourth port of origin for importers to turn to for product. 90% of wheat's pricing through mid-May is weather and its impact on maturing winter wheat and the change on our Monday 3:00p crop condition report updates. Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 271 t.m.t. of wheat was sold last week down 47% from the week prior and 32% below a weak four week average. Most of the sales were small to Asian or Latin Countries buying low quality feed wheat leaving the big players wanting high protein milling wheat for human consumption waiting for new crop wheat to come on line in May and June. After an early week break on talk of mid-week rains on the way, we posted 5 to 10 cent gains Thursday as the expected rain system for Wednesday and Thursday generally missed our driest western wheat states of Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado. Additionally, wxrisk.com sees warmer and drier than normal weather next week across the western plains hard red winter states. Monday's USDA crop report is expected to show a small cut in ending stocks of 8 m.b. to 534 m.b. so, it should be a yawner and have traders quickly turn focus back to weather. Tim Hannagan Alaron Research Team

To: Chispas who wrote (49360)	4/7/2006 3:40:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

CPI overstated for cars? A 40 page PDF from the Fed says the CPI has been way overstated for cars because of incentives and quality improvements. (cars make up 8% of the CPI). Conclusion In this paper we use a rich data set of monthly sales, transaction prices, and financing terms to document several empirical observations on prices for motor vehicles. First, we show that financing incentives play an integral role in understanding recent movements in aggregate vehicle prices. We also find that multiple vintages of the same models are often sold simultaneously in retail vehicle markets, a practice that presents challenges as well as opportunities for measuring vehicle purchase prices. We examine within-model-year price movements and find that vehicle prices drop rapidly in the months after their introduction, often in large part through the use of direct manufacturer-to-consumer incentives. Finally, we consider the construction of a price index that uses matched-model techniques to aggregate over model years. The results of using a conventional index number approach to measure vehicle prices depend crucially on which vehicles can and cannot be considered similar across model years. Our preferred approach, which regards major redesigns and new trims as new (or separate) goods, yields a price index for consumer vehicles that drops faster than the decline shown by the CPI for the same period. We attribute this result to two developments—both relatively recent—that we believe are incorporated more accurately in the price measure constructed using our data and our approach. First, the rate at which manufacturers introduced new and modified models increased dramatically beginning in 2000, and the CPI may have been slow to adapt to the change, in effect treating many of the popular, expanded trim options as price increases. Second, the value and incidence of interest subvention increased noticeably in late 2001 and in 2002 and likely is not fully reflected in the CPI. All told, we find that the pace of quality improvement in consumer vehicles averaged 6 percent per year from 1999 to 2003, a pace twice that implied by official estimates. federalreserve.gov