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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (57708)	4/10/2006 3:05:50 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Mon Apr 10 2006 13:14 trotsky (permabear, 9:15) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved please note: "CoT" is short for 'commitments of traders'. it is a weekly report put out by the CFTC, it's neiter a person, nor an organization. it can't 'lose control' over anything. it's a REPORT. if you meant to say that the commercial hedgers ( one of three groups of traders presented in the weekly CoT report ) will 'have to cover at a loss', this seems highly doubtful. short sales by commercial hedgers are largely covered BEFORE they are made, with either physical inventories or otc positions in gold forward sales where the bullion banks take the opposite of the trade in forward sales by miners. precious metals prices are generally only moved by speculative buying and selling....waiting for a hedger short squeeze is an exercise in futility, as only a minor portion of their positions are speculative in nature. Date: Mon Apr 10 2006 13:05 trotsky (@politics and markets) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved all over the world, there's a marked swing toward the left in recent elections. Latin America is the most obvious locale, with left and far left candidates taking power in one nation after the other - in a sort of domino effect , kicked loose by the huge electoral successes of Hugo Chavez. while one will be hard pressed to commiserate with Silvio Berlusconi getting kicked out in Italy's election, this swing to the left is actually typical of secular bear market periods. the left usually does best when the social mood turns pessimistic - see e.g. FDR. this makes it all the more astounding that global stock markets have proved so resilient of late, but it's also a heads-up that this strength may be ephemeral. Date: Mon Apr 10 2006 12:06 trotsky (@HMOs) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the shares of HMO's have become good targets for shorting now that the fortunes of the Republican party are sagging. during Bushco's reign, this group has gone parabolic, producing an enormous price bubble. in the last 6 years, the HMO index has risen by 900% - from about 180 to 1,800 points. the LT chart is vertigo inducing. anyway, one of its major component stocks has entered a downtrend that has lasted about 3.5 months now, and is beginning to steepen. the weakness in UNH in turn has begun to spill over to other component stocks of the HMO index. presumably the market is beginning to price in the possibility that the mid term election will see the Republicans lose control of Congress ( they are the HMO's major political ally; Bill Frist is even a major shareholder in one , Cardinal Health ) . in addition to the unhealthy look of the charts, sentiment on the group is extremely complacent. neither shorts nor put buyers show any inclination to pile on now that a downtrend has begun - presumably they have been burned too often in this group. when the bears give up in view of a beginning downtrend, it's a good bet the downtrend is the real McCoy. Date: Mon Apr 10 2006 11:46 trotsky (@RYSMF) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the stock is down sharply today on news of an equity financing ( 11m. shares ) , this may provide an entry point for those who have missed out on its magnificent run to date. background info: RYSMF has a number of highly prospective properties in Nevada, with some small scale production scheduled to commence in the near term, and great exploration upside. exploration to date has continually delivered positive surprises. all of this subject to dyodd and the usual caveats ( like, gold must stay firm, etc. ) . Date: Mon Apr 10 2006 11:17 trotsky (@RBY) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i've always been a big fan of RBY ( and incidentally, so is John Embry - Sprott holds about 20% of the outstanding shares ) . it seems slightly undervalued, and has lots of blue sky potential. i mention it because the chart has just built a classic bullish formation ( a symmetrical triangle built after a strong up move, with volume declining into the triangle's apex ) that seems close to resolution. the probability of the resolution being an up move is quite high from a t/a perspective. Date: Mon Apr 10 2006 11:04 trotsky (@real estate bubble) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the bubble is clearly bursting, the incoming data have the air of a financial nuke. in fact, it looks like the jump in inventories and foreclosures, combined with the collapse in transaction volumes all bespeak a market that has lost all liquidity. i don't think these data points have ever changed so quickly in such a short time span. considering that there is still an enormous amount of houses and condos in the hands of speculators who bought on margin at the height of the boom, i believe the rout-in-progress will ultimately even surprise the bears. Date: Mon Apr 10 2006 10:09 trotsky (@pm stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved they don't believe in the rally, and who can blame them. there are too many longs in the gold futures - thus relative weakness in pm stocks. a near term negative if it keeps up.