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To: ild who wrote (57780)	4/10/2006 8:34:13 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

This is understated, as lenders typically rob Peter to pay Paul and pay tax liens on behalf of debtors. Orange County Homeowners And ‘The Real Test’ thehousingbubbleblog.com Jonathan Lansner has his eye on Orange County property taxes. “In January, I told you that a decade has passed since this many of us missed paying a December installment of property taxes. Last week, John Moorlach’s staff was kind enough to whip up an interim report for me. The fresh data show that the early trend wasn’t any statistical fluke, as we continue to be annoyingly late on our property taxes.” “Through the start of April, 24,701 first-installment bills were still late, 16 percent more than the same time a year ago. The tax collector only sent out 2 percent more bills this year. Those late bills were for $38million in total taxes, up 37 percent from a year ago. That handily exceeds the 11 percent expansion in overall property taxes due to soaring home prices.” “‘I wasn’t surprised. So many people are stretching (to buy a home). It seems intuitive that some people are having a tougher time,’ Moorlach says. He calls payment results for this upcoming bill ‘the real test.’” “Other markers of homeowner financial woes are creeping up, too. In the first two months of the year, mortgage makers served 700 Orange County borrowers with formal default notices, the first step toward foreclosure. That’s up 31 percent vs. 2005. In the same period, 39 county homeowners lost their homes to the lender through foreclosure. That’s more than double 2005.” “So far, the financially challenged group is a manageable lot. If this crowd expands dramatically, their tight wallets will hurt more than the tax collector and lenders. If these folks decide to sell their homes to avert financial disaster, that added supply will challenge the housing market.”

To: ild who wrote (57780)	4/10/2006 10:39:04 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Mon Apr 10 2006 10:09 trotsky (@pm stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved they don't believe in the rally, and who can blame them. there are too many longs in the gold futures - thus relative weakness in pm stocks. a near term negative if it keeps up. Date: Mon Apr 10 2006 09:55 trotsky (@pm sentiment) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved XAU p/c OI ratio at 1.11 per Friday ( 111 puts open for every 100 calls in the 3 front months ) , volume p/c ratio on Friday 1.24 ( skepticism ) . Rydex pm fund inflows continue, albeit at a slow pace. cash flow ratio still nearly 30% below its late 2003 high, which is to say it now resides slightly below midway of its 2005 low and 2003 high. COMEX gold futures CoT report beginning to look very stretched.