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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (184024)	4/10/2006 10:53:58 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

>> I don't expect the future to be simple and easy for AMD, or bleak horror for Intel. I also don't expect Intel to reestablish the same level of dominance that it used to have. dominance or lack thereof will not be driving the stock price. That will depend on profits, which will be driven my margins, which will be determined by yield, utilization and ASP. So we're back to whether Intel's drop in revenue and earnings in q1 and the current q2 is a limited run process, or a fundamental shift. The more I look at it, the more it looks like the APM talk (of inherently superior yield) is just BS, and Intel's entire problem is a misbalance in chipsets because 2nd party makers are not willing to make chipsets for Intel without assurance that Intel will not invade their market. My bet is that AMD's great success was inflated due to a fluke that capitalized on short-run Intel mis-planning, and the process has already ended and reversed. The notion that Intel has poor utilization and yield just does not make sense from what I've been reading. And the fact they will now drop prices and flood the market with processors confirms this view. Of course this model does not predict ASP or margin. But the confirmation of its validity should be that the market share of Intel will have its low point in q1, and it will increase throughout the year. ASP's and profits might be destroyed in the process, but share erosion will stop. Possibly at the cost of Intel's stock price. And definitely with a negative impact on AMD's stock price. Sarmad