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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (184026)	4/10/2006 12:27:02 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

>> . Esp. if AMDs ASPs do not shrink or do not shrink as much as Intel's. an outcome of my model is that AMD's unit costs will rise faster than Intel's throughout q2, q3 and q4 (while Intel's cost drop). And the only way for AMD to preserve its current 20% market share is to match Intel's price reductions, and therefor accept lower margin. Whether AMD will opt to preserve market share, or whether they opt to preserve their ASP in their advantaged niches is unknown to me. But my conclusion is they can't do both. As you said, we'll see how it goes. >> I'm not claiming that they do have poor utilization or yield Well, that assumption is at the base of many people's conclusion that AMD's rise corresponds to Intel's decline. It is difficult to make the case without that. I'm surprised you disassociated your conclusion from that premise. What's left then ? That AMD did a good job of copying Intel's chips on their 8th try ? Sarmad

To: TimF who wrote (184026)	4/10/2006 2:48:14 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 186894

One thing, if Intel grows market share, but the growth isn't large, and its at the cost of lower ASPs and profits, Unless the PC-TV takes off in the western markets- this would be N amer and the eurozone, then I can't see how ASPs will not continue to decline. The classic "IT" dept in business is now centered in India. Thats a 4% profit margin region. I don't think the stock market is buying the "make it up in volume" excuse anymore. If the IPTV flies though, and there is some evidence it is, then all bets are off. ASPs can be well over $1K for this business. With all the TV shows CBS just put online, plus the itunes business, this looks like a killer app area for the fall.