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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (51784)	4/10/2006 6:54:14 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

>>However, the big question for me remains: how much longer until it shows up in the general stock market measures?<< I think it's showing up now. Builders like TOL, SPF, WCI, BZH and HOV are already well off their tops from last year. FNM and FRE are both well off their highs....there may be one more last gasp rally predicated on "the end of the Fed rate increases", but I think we're in that phase presently, and bad guidance/warnings will swamp any further effect from the Fed actually announcing they're done (which won't happen in the next meeting, maybe the one after.....) EDIT: In the meantime this has been fun to play with: stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Li14,3]&pref=G

To: Perspective who wrote (51784)	4/10/2006 8:01:46 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

>>>Is there yet another bubble that is growing unabated? Is there another asset class being levered up as we speak to offset sliding real estate liquidity?<<< In life, it is often very instructive to simplify, and paint with a broad brush. Hence there are really only three asset classes: 1) stocks, 2) bonds, and 3) real estate. We have clearly printed much more money recently then any wealth we have created. Hence we have serious inflation. Has that extra money been destroyed, taken out of circulation, deposits by the Fed withdrwn from member banks??? I think not. So where is the extra cash invested??? Lets see...... Didn't Greenspan have a headache recently?? You know - a conumdrum?? Why hasn't anyone referred to the persistently low yield on the ten year Treasury as a "Bond Bubble?" Could it be that the smart money went from NASDAQ to Real Estate to Treasuries before the financial press noticed??? How about commodities - not included in the big three of course - gold, silver, crude, etc are through the roof. Maybe after six years of dormancy, stocks are ready to move again.