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Non-Tech : Companies that BENEFIT from a recession -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (8)	4/26/2006 5:33:50 AM
From: zebraspot	Respond to of 34

Thanks, Sid. I've been very long gold for a few years, and have enjoyed the ride up and have no plan to sell anytime soon, unless peace, real prosperity and fiscal responsibility break out (fat chance). Part of the reason I liked it was the fact that in real terms in needs to go to about $2000/oz to match its old high of 26 years ago. (What other asset can you name that is valued at less than 1/3 of what it was 26 years ago, right?) That fact has given me some confidence in the past years, and I am starting to see that mentioned in the mainstream press lately, which is interesting and I guess bullish. Also interesting is Pierre Lassonde's recent comments on gold - he sees it hitting those old highs possibly in the next 12-18 months, and says that those levels will look like "change" in a few years. Here is that CC transcript, in case you missed it: goldstockblog.com I saw GFX at VIC and loved the idea, particularly as a recession play. Haven't bought since the price was up to $4 before I saw it. Waiting for a pullback. I went into an Office Depot recently and looked but didn't find anything of theirs. So, it's all in front of them, right? Very original, great idea -- as usual. I was looking at some debt collection and pawn shop stocks, but the former, in particular, seems to actually have a tougher time in a recession, since the debts are harder to collect and new, eager-beaver competition shows up to overbid. I'm in puts in some REITs right now, including my old favorite MAA and AVB. They are simply overloved and overdone. Cap rates are starting to rise and the intrinsic values are heading back down, not up, as some seem to want to believe. I think they correct 25% or more later this year. Also have bought some of the new VIX call options, figuring sooner or later volatility will pick up when greed turns to fear. More later.

To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (8)	4/27/2006 4:26:40 AM
From: zebraspot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34

Are you looking at any heavy PP users, a la Home Products, that would similarly benefit in a weakening economy -- or are the circumstances different now? Looking at your GFX -- is $4 a good entry point, or do you think it will pullback? TIA. Paul

To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (8)	5/24/2006 2:33:08 PM
From: zebraspot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34

I bought some cheap, out-of-the-money Perrigo calls today, figuring that the market was starting to sniff out a possible recession, and PRGO would come to mind since it did well back in the early 90s recession and still seems to be a likely beneficiary of a harder times.

To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (8)	7/17/2006 2:22:30 AM
From: zebraspot	Respond to of 34

Sid, On your Zero coupon bond idea, what is a good vehicle, other than buying the bonds outright? There don't seem to be many zero coupon bond funds, but American Century has some (ACTVX is one with a 2025 maturity). Any thoughts would be appreciated.

To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (8)	3/3/2008 12:59:52 PM
From: zebraspot	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34

Sid wrote:>>Another macro play that, however, could turn out to be a terrible mistake, depending upon how things evolve, is long dated zero coupon treasury bonds. This idea seems to contradict the currency collapse scenario in the previous paragraph, and maybe the long bond market will collapse along with everything else. But there were two clear examples in history—the US in the 1930-40s and Japan in the 1990s until recently--when a very weak economy resulted in long term government bonds priced to yield under 1%.<< Sid, Due to my respect for your take on things, I reviewed what you wrote a couple of years ago, about long-dated zero coupon bonds. I believe that the reason Japan saw long bonds go to 1% in recent decades (and the U.S. back in the 30s) made sense, given their almost zero inflation rate. The U.S., on the other hand, is in terrible shape regarding real inflation(as opposed to govt. reported), and I think long term bond market is very vulnerable here. Accordingly, I have bought puts in the TLT etf, betting that that etf comes down from $90~ into the $60s in the next year or two, as long term rates soar to price in higher inflation expectations. I mean, would you lend money to someone today for 20 years fixed at 4.4%?(the current yield on the TLT) That can't last. But, that said, your comments give me slight pause, since you probably know more about this than me. Any comment you'd make would be much appreciated. Regards.