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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (29911)	4/12/2006 1:28:15 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95456

Don, I wonder if some of those >neutral at best< people ever look at charts like this one [chips vs SEMI bookings - again] flickr.com I get the sense some are still stuck on the V shaped cycles we haven't seen for half a decade. Of course it wasn't obvious 5 years ago, but it is now. PS: Thanks for testing the Flickr site. I think I'll put the 3 most important charts there [Flickr has a limit which I have not explored]

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (29911)	4/12/2006 1:42:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95456

We must factor in the HUGE jump in expectations built into LRCX. Before last quarter's blowout, the expectations for the current quarter were at 43 cents. Now they are at 62 cents, or a 40% bump after the blowout. I hate to be negative but I have a feeling that even meeting these inflated numbers will likely cause a sell off. The media has traditionally looked for the clouds and not the silver linings when they view the SCE sector. We'll get much more talk of a peak if they miss! It seems to me that they must exceed these already inflated expectations to get any additional respect from the street but I hope I'm wrong on this point! EDIT: also, the stock is up 60% in the last year... Will we see sell the news, no matter what the news holds?