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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (29930)	4/12/2006 6:51:47 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95426

I don't claim to have a lock on the future as many of our analyst friends claim to have. Is it possible that this is the start of a new up cycle that could last a few years? Why can't Lam improve earnings by 10 to 15 cents per quarter for the next 7 or 8 quarters? Look at the oil patch or the commodity sectors. Why can't the semis stocks have a run similar to what we've seen in these sectors? Why assume that $50 is a top for Lam? Strictly for the sake of discussion: 55+65+80+90 = $2.90 eps 1+1.15+1.25+1.35= $4.75 eps This would be 63% yoy earnings growth. Why can't LRCX get a 25 PE x $2.90 eps = 72.50 price target? or 16 PE x $4.50 eps = $72? I'll tell you why, because the analyst community wouldn't dare do an about face on semis until they get whacked over the head with unbelievable fundamentals first! I'm sure we'll be told to sell in May and go away from the semis, even though they look like they are just starting to heat up!