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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomcat who wrote (193506)	4/13/2006 10:26:06 AM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Thread: As I look over the earnings report, I have noticed a few things. THe first one is that Cash is higher relative to Revenue, than Intel's last earnings report. $2.6 billion divided by $1.3 billion is 2.0. Intel had $11.3 billion divided by $10.2 billion is 1.1. Given that revenue fell dramatically this quarter (we will know for sure how much in a week), that ratio might have changed, but lets assume it stays the same. If you use expenses minus taxes as the basis, the ratios change to 2.6 and 1.5. All of this time I have heard many Intel boosters claim that all that cash would allow Intel to weather a price war. Well then AMD's cash must make them able to go far beyond what Intel can weather. If Intel would cut prices 50% to win the marketshare battle, they would bleed cash far faster than AMD would. And they would run out before the end of the year. That alone should give one pause. Now AMD is guiding flat to seasonal based on Intel being stupid and doing a price war. A whole lot of folks are dumping on AMD for that reason. But almost no one is dumping on Intel for that same reason. Intel dropping 45% of revenue from their likely bad Q1, would be an out and out disaster. That expectation should send Intel to a little more than book value ($6-7). If Intel does the smart thing and accept a little loss for the Q2, after making some threatening moves just for PR, AMD should be much higher revenue wise in Q2 and should have a much higher stock price. Intel should stay about where it is. WS should not have its cake and eat it too. Either give AMD its due, or slam Intel for its folly. Pete

To: Tomcat who wrote (193506)	4/13/2006 12:14:27 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

TC, Re: Hector is ready for any price war and will start one himself if he has to. This will be bad for both Intel and AMD's stock, but it will not kill off AMD. So I think the ball is in Intel's court and they need to decide how bad things get.> LOL! INTC had a price/performance "Make-Up" in place with Dell last Q. Intel would pay the cost of making a Dell server performance competitive with AMD server from a competitor. AMD cut server pricing -- When? INTC cut Earnings/Revenue forecast -- When? -tgp