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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Eric L who wrote (3867)4/13/2006 11:54:15 AM
From: sisuman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9255
 
Eric, some speculative fun with numbers.

Assumptions:
* Jorma in Q4 dialogue said he expected Q1 market share to be flat (34%) or up slightly; network sales to experience seasonal decline
*Nokia shares now at 4092 million (4292 in Q4)
* Analysts expectations for Nokia - 70 million units; 8,340 Million Euros revenue; 824 million Euros profit; ASP of 98 Euros

1. Assuming analyst numbers:
*70 m units X 98 Euros = 6860 Euros + 1480 Euros for networks (a 24% decline)
= 8,340 total rev.
* With .134 opg. margin = 1116 Euros opg. profit
* Same tax rate as Q4 = .738, so after tax profit = 824 million Euros; 4092 million shares = 0.20 Euros EPS

2. A more positive outlook:
*Assuming 72 million units (up 33.8% from 05Q1) X 103 ASP for Nokia, and networks seasonal drop of 18%, gives 9016 million Euros revenue
* With an improved opg. margin of 0.14 (Erics wish), yields 1262 million Euros opg. profit X .738 tax rate = 931 million Euros profit
* With 4092 million shares = 0.23 Euros EPS - up 21% from 05Q1 and plus .03 Euros vs analysts

3. Assume Bank of America 74 million units and 215 industry units, gives a Nokia market share of 34.4%
* Overall numbers work out to 9222 million Euros revenue, 953 million Euros profit and 0.2365 Euros EPS - up 24.5% from 05Q1

Can we expect to see numbers like options 2 or 3?

Sisuman



To: Eric L who wrote (3867)4/14/2006 2:40:26 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 9255
 
Samsung Q1 Handsets ...

Samsung reported something of a mixed bag. On the positive side, unit shipments were up sequentially, and they will regain some share lost in H2'05 and especially Q4'05. On the downside, in what is traditionally Samsung's strongest quarter, ASPs were down substantially and operating margin was also down significantly from the year ago quarter although slightly up from Q4's single digit margin. While unit handset shipments were up 18% sequentially, handset revenue was actually down 6%. New models are not completely ramped, and Samsung is trying to compete in emerging markets. Needless to say the tone of the conference call was very subdued compared to the exuberance of Q1 2004 when Nokia took a double-whammy share hit from both Samsung and Motorola, both of whom executed poorly and had poor Q4 2003 quarters but came out with guns blazing in the following quarter, taking advantage of a Nokia product range that was badly in need of refresh. Back then they also took advantage of a relatively weak Won compared to a strong Euro. The Won has strengthened considerably against both the Euro and Dollar and that is affecting both ASP and margin.

Samsung Earnings Presentation here ...

sec.co.kr

Q1 2006 Handset Sell-In as Reported by Vendors
·
 Q1 2006 Handset Sell-in and Share and YoY Gain/Loss

Q1 05 Q1 05 ¦ Q1 06 Q1 06 ¦ Gain or Loss
Company Units Share ¦ Units Share ¦ Units Percent
======= ===== ===== | ====== ===== ¦ ====== =======
Nokia 53.8m 31.3% | ¦
Motorola 28.7m 16.7% | ¦
Samsung 24.5m 14.2% | 29.0m 13.6% ¦ +4.5M +18%
LG 11.1m 6.5% | ¦
SEricsson 9.4m 5.5% | 13.3m 6.3% ¦ +3.9m +41%
Others¹ 44.5m 25.9% | ¦
------ ------ | ------ ------ ¦
Total¹ 172.0m 100.0% |212.5m² 100.0% ¦
·
Q1 2006 Handset Sell-in and Share and QoQ Sequential Gain/Loss
·
Q4-05 Q4-05 ¦ Q1 06 Q1 06 ¦ Gain or Loss
Company Units Share ¦ Units Share ¦ Units Percent
======= ====== ===== ¦ ====== ===== ¦ ====== =======
Nokia 83.7m 34.1% ¦ ¦
Motorola 44.7m 18.2% ¦ ¦
Samsung 27.2m 11.1% ¦ 29.0m 13.6% ¦ +1.8m +7%
LG 16.2m 6.6% ¦ ¦
SEricsson 16.1m 6.5% ¦ 13.3m 6.3% ¦ -2.8m -17%
Others¹ 58.0m 23.5% ¦ ¦
------ ------ ¦ ------ ------ ¦
Total¹ 245.9m 100.0% |212.5m² 100.0% ¦
·
¹ As estimated by Strategy Analytics
² My estimate. Current Q1 sell-in estimates range from 205m to 215m

Q1 2006 Key Handset Metrics
·
           Sales       ASP            Revenue        Operating
Units EURO USD EURO USD Margin
===== ========== ======= ======== ==========
Samsung 29.0m €142 $171 €3.784b $4.570b 10.0%
SEricsson 13.3m €149 $181 €1.992b $2.420b 7.6%

From the Samsung Q1 Slides
·
Handset shipment of 29mn units (+7% QoQ, +19% YoY)
·
--> Export: QoQ increase in most regions despite weak seasonality
(+6% QoQ)
--> Domestic: Significant increase due to resumption of subsidy
(+18% QoQ)
·
Samsung Handset Shipment Mix by World Region
·
Q1'06 Q1'05
===== =====
Europe 38% 40% Down 2ppt.
Americas 29% 29% Same
Asia 26% 25% Up 1 ppt.
Korea 7% 6% Up 1 ppt.
·
ASP decrease in both domestic and overseas market
·
--> Export: $184(Q4) v. $171(Q1) = -7% QoQ
Price adjustment on existing models and shipment increase in
Latin America and Asia
--> Domestic: KRW 325K(Q4) v. KRW 314K(Q1) = -3% QoQ
Increase of mid-end products sales during back-to-school seasons
·
Telecoms Division Margin Increased QoQ but Decreased YoY
·
--> Operating Margin increased 23% QoQ from 8% to 10%
--> Operating Margin decreased 45% QoQ from 17% to 10%
·
Networks revenue decline due to the sluggishness of CDMA market

Samsung's Global Business Outlook
·
--> ’06 Global handset demand: 910M (+13% Y-on-Y)
Demand growth continues in emerging market (Middle East & Asia)
despite slowed growth of replacement demand in developed countries
--> Continued growth of 3G [WCDMA]: 45M (’05) -> 92M (’06)
--> Expansion of 3G services in developed market by major carriers
·
Samsung's Q2 Business Outlook
·
--> Expect slight increase of shipment driven by new high-end products
Export: Expand slim design phones with higher features such as 2mp
camera (more than 5 models)
Domestic: Demand increase for high-end products due to subsidies
--> Emphasize on differentiated 3G handsets with various form factors and
technical competitiveness
--> Roll-out of HSDPA phones
--> Aggressive launches of new 3G phones with higher features
(Slim design, 2~3 mega pixel camera)
--> Expect margin increase in Q2 or at least by H2

From the Samsung Conference Call

Samsung Product Mix In Q1
·
--> GSM = ~18.8m units ("slightly more than 30% with 3GSM WCDMA")
--> WCDMA = ~2.1m units ("6 to 8%")
--> CDMA = ~8.1m units ("slightly less than 30%" -- ¿¿ ~28% ???)
·
Handset Production Capability
·
--> Ramping to ~150 million unit capacity by year end
--> ~35% production outside Korea by year end

Press Comments on Samsung Q1

[Samsung] on Friday announced first-quarter sales of W13.96 trillion (US $13 billion), operating profit of W1.61 trillion and net income of W1.88 trillion. That was a drop in sales of 10 percent from the previous quarter, a decline in operating profit of 24 percent and a fall in net profits of 27 percent. On average, 17 local securities firms had predicted the company would record sales of W15.19 trillion, operating profit of 2 trillion and net income of W1.98 trillion. Samsung Electronics performed poorly in all its business areas, from the flagship semiconductor, LCD and cell phone sectors to digital media and home appliances. ... The IT division sold a record 29 million cell phones in the first quarter, the highest-ever quarterly figure. But due to a price drop it was barely able to stay above the 10 percent mark in the operating income over revenue ratio, recording W4.59 trillion in sales and W460 billion in operating profit. The IT division sold a record 29 million cell phones in the first quarter, the highest-ever quarterly figure. But due to a price drop it was barely able to stay above the 10 percent mark in the operating income over revenue ratio, recording W4.59 trillion in sales and W460 billion in operating profit. - chosun.com -

tinyurl.com

Profit from telecommunications at Samsung, the world's third-largest mobile-phone maker, fell 45 percent to 460 billion won from a year earlier as surging demand for cheaper handsets from China and India drove down prices. The division was expected to post net income of 512 billion won, according to the Bloomberg survey of analysts. Average prices of Samsung's mobile-phone exports fell to $171 in the first quarter from $182 a year earlier. Samsung fell further behind bigger rivals last year after failing to keep up with Nokia and Motorola in boosting production of entry-level phones. It was also a step behind Motorola, maker of the half- inch-thick Razr phone, in introducing slim-design models. Still, the company joined Nokia and Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications Ltd. in raising industry shipment predictions for the year. Samsung said global handset shipments will rise 13 percent to 910 million units, compared with an earlier forecast for 860 million. - Bloomberg -

tinyurl.com

Samsung Electronics posted its lowest operating profit in five quarters in the first three months of this year, hit by falling prices of flash memory and LCD display panels. Its operating profit dropped 24 percent from the previous quarter to 1.61 trillion won, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2004. Its sales fell 10 percent to 13.96 trillion won, from 15.52 trillion won the previous quarter. Net profit also dropped 27 percent to 1.88 trillion won. A stronger won against the dollar cut its profits by about 200 billion won, according to the company. It expects to suffer from the worsening market conditions in the second quarter as well. Not a single department of its five business divisions has seen improved profits this year. ... Chu Woo-sik, VP of Samsung’s IR, said "We believe there will be a turning point at a certain time of the second quarter. But still, we cannot say that the second quarter’s profit would improve from that of the first quarter." Chu also blamed on the Korean won’s gain on the dollar for the disappointing earnings. We estimate that when the Korean currency gains 100 won against the dollar, that becomes a 2-trillion-won loss for us," he said. The mobile phone sector reported that it sold 29 million mobile phone units during the period, up by 7 percent from the previous quarter. However, the average price of the handsets fell from $184 to $171, dragging down the revenue in the sector by 6 percent. - Korea Times -

tinyurl.com

Upcoming Q1 Handset and Wireless Semiconductor IC Reporting

• Motorola  Tuesday    April 18
• TI Tuesday April 18
• LG Wednesday April 19 [Before Open for Statesiders]
• QUALCOMM Wednesday April 19
• Nokia Thursday April 20 [Before Open for Statesiders]

###

- Eric -