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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (193988)	4/16/2006 1:29:38 PM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

"That was history before I posted anything here. But from 20% to 30%, which is the public goal of AMD management." I and others have gone over this numerous times. But... Ok, let's take it slow. AMD was at 17.9% revenue share in Q405. Q1 is typically seasonally down 5% to 8% from Q4. Q2 is often the same from Q1. AMD's revenues were essentially flat from Q4. Intel has already announced that they aren't going to make their original projections, new mid-point is $8.9 billion, or a decline of about 18%. Assuming that percentage decline is across the board, that means AMD probably increased their revenue to a little over 20% market share. Now assuming Intel is down another 8% in Q2 and AMD is essentially flat, that means AMD can get to 22% revenue market share. That puts them on the road to their target of 30%. Q3 might see some erosion. Might not, considering that Merom will definitely miss the back to school build and Conroe won't be a big factor. And AMD will be having a significant increase in production capability, making a significant portion of Intel's business vulnerable. Intel could respond by slashing prices, but as I have indicated, they don't have a lot of wiggle room unless they want to post a loss. The price points on Conroe put them at risk of this. So it is very possible that AMD can still gain revenue share in Q3, especially considering that HP is moving AMD into their business lineup. Q4 will have similar dynamics, with the strong possibility that AMD will have an even larger presence in HP's business line. The prospect of a high share price is, of course, dependent on AMD increasing their revenue market share. Which they show every prospect of being able to do, at least until Q1 or Q2 of next year. By that time, 65nm and K8L is in the cards for AMD, and since we know exactly zero about them, it is hard to say how things shake out at that point. Bottom line, AMD has a rational shot at 25% of the market by the end of the year. Could even be more, depending on how things work out. The less than enthusiastic response to you on this board has to do with your troll-worthy appearance. Trolls have destroyed more than one board, so they tend not to be very welcome. It really is a simple dynamic. You appear to be a troll because you deal in straw man arguments where you take a statement, change it to something different, then proceed to demolish the new statement. While impressive in its energy, it doesn't really address anything of note.