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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocky9 who wrote (9398)	4/16/2006 9:04:02 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Guys, My model is on my other computer but I can say that the weekly model seems to under-count the quarter numbers by 15% or so and the monthlies by ~10% or so (7-8% actually but that is too exact). My spreadsheet has been remarkably close each month. I have a gain in end-user demand of just over 100K for Q1 but zero growth in unit sales as a result of the swing factor - inventory. I estimate for the numbers to be consistent that there was a build of approximately 100K units in Q4. If the inventories come back in to 5-5 1/2 weeks, this could take away the 100K unit growth leaving us with just the pricing increase for the quarter. Still beats most if not all estimates. It also goes to show the analyst issues. PJ who dislikes SEPR and has been right by the way says sales are going to miss by $30+ million based on straight arithmetic. They also have Xopenex missing by similar margin. They never comment on this miss by the way. It is in a table where they are using weeklies times $83 to get to the Lunesta estimate - without showing how this weekly IMS data needs to be massaged to get to final use. They do this for all drugs they track and it is probably a good tool for trying to show where higher liklihoods of misses exist. BUT The $83 is also too low based on the pricing which solves for past quarters' revenues. I have a number in the mid to high 80s. SEPR mgmt is a bit opaque on these issues but if one looks at charts and listens to them talk and colors the numbers a bit the way common sense would dictate, one can get pretty close. Jon