Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quidditch who wrote (9400)	4/17/2006 12:11:04 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 10280

I just opened an old version of the model whose numbers are close. I have $88.33 for pricing. PJ is clearly missing some impact of higher pill counts and lower discounting and letting their own bias on pricing beliefs enter into equation (bias from their starting point way back when not as to appropriate levels). I have $155-160 MM being my point estimate. And excuse my mistake earlier, the stocking impact in Q1 is zero assuming 6 weeks at end of Q4 and 5.5 weeks now - the delta in impact is 120K units though as Q4 likely had a build of that level. Total inventory in channel by my 5.5 week estimate is roughly 800K units so a 25% change in inventory levels one way or another can really impact things. If for example, stocking fell to 4.5 weeks (from 6 weeks) then final revenues would likely be around $145 MM, or flat to Q4 - that is my worst case. There is upside to about $170 MM if inventory holds at 6 weeks and pricing is closer to $90 per Rx (or if the undercount from IMS was larger for some reason or if discounting lessened). Xopenex will likely be flat YoY in my opinion. I am not running detailed models there anymore but the last analysis I saw showed mid single digit unit decline for the quarter based on weeklies. IMS only captures half-60% of the demand, so tough to read. With pricing increases offsetting unit decline, I see flat revenues. MDI may show as much as $10-15 MM but more likely $7-8 MM depending on inventory build. Jon