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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (58488)	4/17/2006 4:36:56 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

but I can't imagine someone hoarding crude oil in quantities. General Chen watched mad max 2 and I thought he said he bought enough oil to last him and coconut a lifetime?

To: ild who wrote (58488)	4/17/2006 5:37:20 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Mon Apr 17 2006 15:11 trotsky (@pm sentiment) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved XAU p/c OI still inching higher...at 1.22 now, about 12K more puts outstanding than calls. inflows into Rydex continue, the pm fund cash flow ratio is now close to halfway between its 2003-2005 high-low boundaries. the cumulative individual gold issues p/c OI has declined by 0.01 to 0.59 - which is still higher than 92% of all readings over the past year. so no dramatic changes in the quantitative sentiment backdrop yet - skepticism remains rife. Date: Mon Apr 17 2006 15:06 trotsky (P. Yorkie) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "If it can do this in one day ... is there any limit to what it can do ?" there's a limit to what it can do in a single trading day at the COMEX - $75.

To: ild who wrote (58488)	4/17/2006 5:38:41 PM
From: bond_bubble	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

when you are saying, there is speculation in copper, gold etc., you are also assuming that people dont necessarily have to hoard. They just have to buy the contracts at high price and sell at higher price!! This is what people do with oil as well. Real Hedging provides price stability (i.e people buying oil hedge stable price with oil driller and oil driller hedges with service companies and service company hedges with commodity like metals miners and metal miners hedge with oil companies for power!! - the hedge loop is closed). Thus hedging provides very high price stability. Now, the credit inflation is breaking this stability. Today, business people are signing higher prices, dollar devaluation into the hedging activity and there has to be some mispricing getting into this hedging process. That is how I believe speculation gets into the hedging. This speculation is now becoming more and more predominant i.e if oil/copper/zinc demand goes up 0.1%, prices go up 10%!!! Between, 1990s and 2005, house ownership went up less than 10% (I mean primary residences only - not vacation homes), but prices went up 200% or more. Inspite of house supply going up enormously, the prices soared. This is why I think there is speculation in commodities similar to housing!! GDP is a real indicator of consumption. world GDP is not growing more than 4% - which could mean the commodity demand is of the same order as GDP growth - but prices are rising way over that rate...

To: ild who wrote (58488)	4/17/2006 8:12:29 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 110194

As gas prices go up the drivers may decide to carry more gas in their tanks, my guess is that the opposite would happen--i.e., people buy the same dollar amount of gas (say $20), but this puts less gas in their tank. people who are budget-strapped will try to stretch the same dollar amount of gas (less gallons) for the same time period (say a week). naturally, this means they will drive less, which is consistent with the demand-destruction response of higher prices. but i think this is still only happening at the margins, which is great because it means gas can go MUCH higher. i think gas would only be "hoarded" if there were a perception that there was going to be a shortage at the pumps, as happened in the 70s.