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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (194152)	4/17/2006 8:59:52 PM
From: DRBES	Respond to of 275872

i think that you are very correct

To: Joe NYC who wrote (194152)	4/17/2006 9:06:57 PM
From: DRBES	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

i have often thought of ANALysts as lemmings or penguins marching...but a flock of "CHICKEN LITTLES" all running around in circles screaming incoherently ?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (194152)	4/18/2006 8:35:34 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

"This is only a speculation on my part, but what Analysts see as "The Sky is Falling" in the current environment could be only Intel monopoly pricing premium disappearing... Yeah, the overall market in may shrink in terms of ASP (for Intel), but if it is just Intel excess (monopoly) profits either disappearing or shifting to OEMs or consumers, what's the harm? What's the harm to anybody but Intel?" Yes, if the $50 premium paid for INTC CPU's is a monopoly premium, and if INTC's monopoly claws are being clipped by the lawsuit and by AMD's vastly improving capacity prospects, then one might anticipate a convergence of ASP's. At the moment, this $50 premium translates into about $10B/annum in monopoly revenue/profit. In the absence of monopoly and illegal monopolistic tactics, one might well anticipate a redistribution of some or all of this $10B monopoly profit. If this process is now under way, then, in its initial phase, one might also reasonably expect aggregate (AMD + INTC) ASP's to decline as the monopolists ASP declines in attempt to mitigate erosion in the absence of illegal monopolistic tactics. At the limit (i.e. no illegal monopolistic tactics) one might expect ASP's to converge to the midpoint at $125 or lower thus redistributing the monopoly profit to other competitors and, of course, the consumer. Again, there is about $10B in monopoly profit each year that needs to be redistributed, with INTC keeping a lesser portion and the residual redistributed amongst competitors (i.e. AMD and ecosystem partners) and consumers. I'm guessing that aggregate ASP's (i.e. AMD + INTC) have begun to decline, even though AMD's ASP's are increasing (to the midpoint). Obviously, the implication is that INTC's ASP's have begun their descent as the monopoly is being dismantled, but more on INTC's ASP decline after INTC reports tomorrow.