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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: basho who wrote (58531)	4/18/2006 12:23:29 AM
From: booyaka	Respond to of 110194

If we are to see a crackup boom, it will in my view only come about as a result of official responses to the severe downturn likely to result from such a shift in perceptions. The real end game, in other words, has not IMHO even begun. Well put. I agree.

To: basho who wrote (58531)	4/18/2006 9:55:27 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think you nailed a large element of what's happening, but if (and I think it is) alot of leverage is being used in this flucht in die sachwerte/buy everything stampede, a normal correction or reversal beyond say 5% should snowball. I also think this is different from a classic flight, it's more a coorindated attack on certain currencies, and ramp of asset classes. So far we haven't even seen a 3% correction in any of these trades. For instance the emerging markets had a high volume alert and a fake sharp break in March, which was quickly reversed. Same is true of the yen, SF, and Euro carry feeding mechanism. The rallies in those have been short lived. It's almost as if fresh waves of coorindated shorters come in and attack any move. We have another bounce in the feeding currencies going right now, in fact.