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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (58701)	4/19/2006 10:57:58 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I'm thinking more like stagflation, housing falling in some areas but rising in others, interest rates powering higher and wages trending higher.. A complex world<g>

To: mishedlo who wrote (58701)	4/19/2006 11:03:00 AM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

DJ McDonald's Japan To Offer Healthier Foods, Raise Prices TOKYO (AP)--McDonald's Holdings Co. Japan said Wednesday it will add salads and other healthier items to its menu and raise prices in an attempt to stem falling customer spending. The country's top fast-food chain, which is 50% owned by McDonald's Corp. (MCD), also said in its business plan for fiscal 2006 that it will open more 24-hour shops to attract young customers. The chain struggled with an 8% drop in per-customer spending last year after it introduced a range of cut-price items at $0.85 apiece. McDonald's said it will launch a lettuce-and-chicken salad range and a yoghurt-based dessert next month. It will also soon raise prices of its set meals, though it will keep its $0.85 range, the plan said. The company may also start a new restaurant business that offers fare other than hamburgers, it said. In January, McDonald's revised upward its group net profit outlook to $520,000 from $434,000, citing growth in the number of customers despite declining per-customer spending. (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 19, 2006 10:59 ET (14:59 GMT) Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 10 59 AM EDT 04-19-06

To: mishedlo who wrote (58701)	4/20/2006 6:27:54 AM
From: Mike Johnston	Respond to of 110194

Can you tell me how could house prices suffer declines, with money supply growing 15% or 20% a year ? I think housing will not drop in nominal terms, with exception of some coastal speculative property. Is it a coincidence, that as soon as some data starts to point to a slowing housing market and anecdotal evidence of some homeowners in trouble, the Fed comes in with dovish talk, M3 is no longer published and gold rockets $100 since the day the number is not published ? I suspect that the reason the Fed has stopped publishing M3 is that they wanted to increase the rate of money growth from about 8% to mid teens. And i believe that is what they have done. Looking at most numbers, the economy is on fire, with businesses raising prices across the board, retail sales running about + 8-10% y/y. Energy complex, steel, retail, financials are all on fire. Even lowly airlines are increasing prices. It is just a matter of time before we will have significant wage pressure. Having said all that, this is not a healthy economy, it is all about inflation. Retail sales increasing 10% is all about higher prices, not higher real purchasing power of the consumer. Hyperinflation is a much higher probability than last year, because i think that decision has been made to let the dollar go. Why would the Fed stop at 5%, with inflation running at 10% or higher ? Will the Fed come in and do a surprise , emergency 100 basis points rate hike ? No chance, because they want to keep housing inflated. Once they start massive monetization of the bond market, hyperinflation will be a certainty.