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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (72981)	4/19/2006 1:54:39 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Yes, so I answered. There is no recent precedent, so we have to see. The most recent one is 1987. Gold rose a lot less back then, on the back of a huge dollar slide and yield rise. Stocks continued to rally all the way until the big KA-BOOM!

To: William H Huebl who wrote (72981)	4/19/2006 2:07:34 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Here are some Dow/Gold and Dow/Oil charts: investmenttools.com Support on Dow/Oil would be at 88, then 62. So that means at: Dow =10K, Oil = $114 - $161 Dow = 8K, Oil = $91 - $129 Dow = 6K, Oil = $68 - $97 Rising Support on Dow/Gold is at about 5.0. So: Dow =10K, Gold = $2000 Dow = 8K, Gold = $1600 Dow = 6K, Gold = $1200 Looks like oil is getting into range, but Gold still may have a ways to go..

To: William H Huebl who wrote (72981)	4/19/2006 9:58:36 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

I just did some forward simulations on my NDX spreadsheet using my autoregressive indicator. There is the potential for a massive crash in coming days and weeks. I can't forecast a crash with the indicator, all I can do is plug in some values for the index and see whether the indicators they yield make any sense. Basically the model finds turning points. So if I plug in a number for tomorrow or next week or whenever and it yields a turning point value (greater than one) then I know that is a bottom or top. Very large declines are now possible before the bottom is reached. This wasn't possible even a couple of days ago, but the last couple of days rally has loosened things up and come to a potential top turning point on my weekly spreadsheet.