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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (58976)	4/21/2006 1:17:07 PM
From: booyaka	Respond to of 110194

Link to paper referenced by Roach: econ.berkeley.edu As Berkeley Professor Barry Eichengreeen neatly sums it up, “The indefinite maintenance of a current account deficit of 7.5% of GDP by a country whose rate of nominal GDP growth is 5% (3% real plus 2% inflation) implies an eventual ratio of net external debt to GDP of 150% …(and) foreigners end up holding half the country’s capital stock.” (See Eichengreen’s March 2006 paper, “Global Imbalances: The New Economy, the Dark Matter, the Savvy Investor, and the Standard Analysis,” forthcoming in the Journal of Policy Modeling).

To: ild who wrote (58976)	4/22/2006 12:11:38 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

just received a request for quote to help the chinese counter-party of an european ex-client to systematically move capital offshore china for methodical global investment/expansion and diversification hear of similar truths from other quarters, and feel we must get ready for a weakening of the rmb, even as the usd ought to fall against other coins interesting times if one data point is representative of a wall of money from within china wishing to exit, even as a wall of money is angling to enter china from institutional investors additional point, some china banks may not have disclosed all when bought in by western banks ... awaiting development, and if rumors true, then most dramatic love it all, paper paper everywhere recommendation: buy gold, add silver, and do not sell off one's lovely shiny gold coins for germ-contaminated paper money, and do not drink from the koolaid bucket