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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (58999)	4/21/2006 3:12:26 PM
From: bond_bubble	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I'm not saying the demand is falling (although I referred to the China's data where demand was falling). My position is that real demand is increasing little bit but speculative demand is rising enormously. As per boom-bust theory, Credit bubble leads to higher demand (non-inflationary) then into speculative demand (inflationary) and then into hyperinflation (ponzi demand) or deflation. So, we are having enormous speculative demand right now and it could evolve into ponzi demand or the crack up boom. It is just that most people are denying speculative demand as insignificant. what happens if there is a currency depreciation? People like John are betting that these speculative demands will be highly profitable. I think, when USD depreciates, the speculative demand can become a ponzi commodity demand!! That is why Fed is going to jack up the interest rates. So may be John might make good money. But it is little bit unpredictable when we are at that stage. The bonds will suddenly become worthless and so can these commodity contracts (like the house prices). The fall happens suddenly. People are trusting that the Fed will make things happen slowly. I dont. My investment strategy is to short i.e bet that assets/commodities will become worthless. Although I'm planning to short financials and not commodities.