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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bond_bubble who wrote (59133)	4/22/2006 4:09:34 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

You are overlooking the effects of this merge and contract and change. No - some people say if we go hide some gold in a hole in the ground and dig it up later - we will be protected from all this M&A - well I see it now - I see fannie getting fined 400 million, I see JPM getting fined 400 million for IPO laddering - I see skilling getting a grilling! I see failure to deliver all over the markets! Patrick bern fuming with sith lords coming down on him! Guess what - the world didn't come to an end - I see NYSE and Nasdaq getting new rules for trading and merging with virtual exchanges and getting all kinds of new harware/software platforms and the world keeps on trucking. I see bush making deals with jintao while 100 million falong got murdered and bill gates making deals with vietnam - world keeps on trucking. I read report after report of banker or city councilmen stealing money, sleeping with hooker, jacking off to child porn, taking a hit out on thier wife - etc etc day after day after day www.dailyrotten.com newsoftheweird.com - but civilization keeps on going forward - how does it keep going bondbubble? That is what I call as bank failure. So you admit banks have been and are failing around you now and the world is not ending? GOOG stock still going up? How can that be? Not all banks went bellyup in 1929. Some survived. And How? Did you read that book by Black like chromatic asked you on th S&L crisis? probably banks failed in 1932 because they did not have 3 years of new business since 1929!! Some had not gotten too overextended - some in california got way too overextended - that is how elroys grandma got 80% haircut. Not every bank was foolish. Many banks in california had ample reserves to wether the slow times. But I've read so many places that loans were difficult to get and no credit was flowing. Obviously, my statement would seem to make sense right? But ofcourse, when I present such an argument, you would back off saying, it was policy of the day or something like that so banks went bellyup. From the hungry 1840's til hoovers day it was common economic thought to just let everything fail and collapse - I provided links showing that. Boom/busts were the order of the age - damned if people went panicking in the streets shooting each other - built moral character eh? Hoover and benjamin strong were gonna change that. Much of the history I have read is that if bejamin strong had not died - more money would have been pumped into the system faster - Bernanke says that was the problem back then - not enough money got pumped fast enough - I wonder if the WW2 hadn't come along - how they economy was to grow out of the slump? Today economic thought of many policy makers is much different than those times - mish and elroy and others say you cant fix malinvestment throwing more money out there - the feds job is not to fix malinvestment - to cut military budgets and spend more on genetic research - their job is to keep prices stable and too many from going without jobs who want them - trying to keep social chaos to a minimum. Looking at it this way - how long can we keep malinvestment up until we fall under our own weight just to give idle hands something to do? I still see lots of waste able to be created just to keep idle hands busy - long way from starvation and mass killings in the streets. Chromatic said in the past the fed could ENGINEER things better because the debt stayed in our borders - but now with derivatives and globalization - the debt has left our borders and the fed is out of control now. So china comes tomorrow and demands payment on that debt - or whoever - my payday loan friends would demand payment on debt too - lots of times it didn't get paid - thems the breaks. Lots of times it did get paid though - you have to take these things on a case by case basis it seems. That is where you are falling into the traps of "hyperinflation". why would it not happen now? Noone taking loan and banks fail? well, we are not far off from the depression... We may see a 40% cut in the value of the dollar, we may see the price of eggs go down 70% - we may see the number of homeless swell in hawaii (have you been keeping up with my bum friend over there) - but I still dont see anything that makes me so scared I have to go and bury shiny metal in my back yard - that is so silly. Just out of curiosity, what is your investment plan besides shorting? I already post this several times to Chen - I believe the core of any investment plan is DIVERSIFICATION - never put all your eggs in one basket (or in elroys case have all your real estate in one bubble county). a little bonds, a little stock, a little real estate, some things short, some things long - spread it around. No one has a crystal ball - and even though einstien said god doesn't throw dice en.wikipedia.org This implies there is randomness that not even the greatest quant computer in the universe will ever be able to predict - you don't know the future bond bubble. Illegal off shore accounts and pimco may be manipulating something fierce - but you dont know how long the plunge protection team can keep the party going - many VERY SMART investors here were VERY WRONG on the timing on a great number of macro investment issues - don't forget that. Vosilla likes listening to the Wiz, I like listening to the Philster, Many like reading trostky and some read succo or listen to puplava - find a guru you like and get in behind the rest of the lemmings - HAHA! Are you betting on commodities believing in commodity hyperinflation? In 1929, the shorters made a ton of money - noone else... Many of my friends at diehards.org had grandparents that did A OK with bonds through the depression while millionaires went broke trying to trade the stock markets - asset allocation was thier secret.