Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (49966)	4/22/2006 11:13:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 116555

Man, with oil at 75, you really think this could be an inflation headfake? Oil has next to nothing if not NOTHING to do with inflation. Please tell me how peak oil has anything to do with anything other than peak oil. Mish

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (49966)	4/23/2006 9:30:53 PM
From: sitkapacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Man, with oil at 75, you really think this could be an inflation headfake? I was talking about an 'inflation headfake' with regard to treasury yields. As gold has rallied over the past month it has dragged yields up. And this rise in yields seems to be either a capitulation (in which we would expect a reversal soon) or the start of a powerful new uptrend. Since they have yet to break out of their long-term downtrend from 25 years ago, I'm assuming this is a headfake that will soon reverse until proven otherwise. And if they do break out and prove otherwise, we will see it very early in the trend. The curious thing is that yields remain so low now even though if you restrict yourself to the metals charts you would think that inflation was raging out of control. One of them is right and one of them is wrong, and its a crap shoot to guess which one is which. But I would guess that the bond market, whichever way it goes, is more trustworthy. And as to what could stop it, there is one thing that can: debt. I think Oil rising, in the case of our debt-riden economy, is not inflationary but deflationary. It's all about the wages... Brian