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To: skinowski who wrote (132064)	4/23/2006 11:13:44 AM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 209892

I think airlines are finally falling victim to late-cycle economy dynamics. I'm thinking about entering shorts on any bounces off support in this batch: stockcharts.com\|D Message 22382415 Message 22382453 And as noted GM is in the batch of late-cycle economy victims. BC

To: skinowski who wrote (132064)	4/23/2006 11:17:18 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Maybe the GM downtrend is weakening, but this bounce smacks of triangulation: stockcharts.com No evidence of strong uptrend there yet. BC

To: skinowski who wrote (132064)	4/23/2006 11:37:20 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 209892

Hi Ski, Full disclosure - I'm the world's worst shorter. I see the sox,banker,brokers,russell 2000,midcaps,s&p all doing two sideways/inside days after breaking out ot new highs - some all time highs. The delay(sideways) action was primarily the result of getting options expiry over. I'm hopeful and believe Monday and Tuesday will give us a resumption in the breakout. Next week gives us the oil companies profits - NO DOUBT HISTORICAL RECORD EARNINGS. This wealth driver of oil is breathing fresh blood into infrastructure growth - both ethanol,and oil refining. All resources are reopening old mines and making new mines.There is demand and price is being friven up by demand - this is the healthiest of all economic powers. Even high oil always bring along excess supply.Demand this year is up.8 of a percent and the oil patch here in Houston is on fire.There are rigs up in the air being built like it is 1980 all over gain.They're going out globally to all corners of the world. I'm watching the oils for a top.The best shorts are those that every one knows will never go down. This spring gas has popped up to record highs 90-120 days before a hurricane induced calamity threatened supply capabilities and in fact did great damage. This recent price spike is not on the fundamental strength that the last spike was and its early to what could be a real reason. I'm watching XOM price response to the record earnings they'll surel post.If it weaker than elation - it is being sold off into. Management (Lee Raymond) just bailed with a huge retirement plan - perhaps he's the best indicator - getting out at the top when the getting is best. Whenever prices go up on a commodity,alternative replacements get used and/or consumption is curtailed,WHILE ore investment brings on supply. When less demand crashes into more supply price always loses!! I don't doubt that the best short will be after a failed second top or marginal new high fritters away. By then we'll have the benefit of some momentum indicators suggesting weakness as well. I'm the worlds worst shorter and I'll rely on cs's fugly charts for candidates. I do think we'll learn that after months of Contango and an 8 year record level of crude coupled with declining demand growth and higher prices stifling demand fatser - we mat well learn a new word - BACKWARDATION. Needless to say those with new money in the "surest bets of bets" - long oil commodities,will learn how quickly price collapses when the term "limit down strikes fear in their pounding hearts". That's my short idea and smart people only short at a top when the top has gone hyperbolic . Oil is a good candidate for a short of the decade- much like tech was in 2000. IMHO Bob

To: skinowski who wrote (132064)	4/23/2006 11:41:01 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Hi Ski, Full disclosure - I'm the world's worst shorter. I see the sox,banker,brokers,russell 2000,midcaps,s&p all doing two sideways/inside days after breaking out ot new highs - some all time highs. The delay(sideways) action was primarily the result of getting options expiry over. I'm hopeful and believe Monday and Tuesday will give us a resumption in the breakout. Next week gives us the oil companies profits - NO DOUBT HISTORICAL RECORD EARNINGS. This wealth driver of oil is breathing fresh blood into infrastructure growth - both ethanol,and oil refining. All resources are reopening old mines and making new mines.There is demand and price is being friven up by demand - this is the healthiest of all economic powers. Even high oil always bring along excess supply.Demand this year is up.8 of a percent and the oil patch here in Houston is on fire.There are rigs up in the air being built like it is 1980 all over gain.They're going out globally to all corners of the world. I'm watching the oils for a top.The best shorts are those that every one knows will never go down. This spring gas has popped up to record highs 90-120 days before a hurricane induced calamity threatened supply capabilities and in fact did great damage. This recent price spike is not on the fundamental strength that the last spike was and its early to what could be a real reason. I'm watching XOM price response to the record earnings they'll surel post.If it weaker than elation - it is being sold off into. Management (Lee Raymond) just bailed with a huge retirement plan - perhaps he's the best indicator - getting out at the top when the getting is best. Whenever prices go up on a commodity,alternative replacements get used and/or consumption is curtailed,WHILE ore investment brings on supply. fageninc.com When less demand crashes into more supply price always loses!! I don't doubt that the best short will be after a failed second top or marginal new high fritters away. By then we'll have the benefit of some momentum indicators suggesting weakness as well. I'm the worlds worst shorter and I'll rely on cs's fugly charts for candidates. I do think we'll learn that after months of Contango and an 8 year record level of crude coupled with declining demand growth and higher prices stifling demand fatser - we mat well learn a new word - BACKWARDATION. Needless to say those with new money in the "surest bets of bets" - long oil commodities,will learn how quickly price collapses when the term "limit down strikes fear in their pounding hearts". That's my short idea and smart people only short at a top when the top has gone hyperbolic . Oil is a good candidate for a short of the decade- much like tech was in 2000. IMHO Bob