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To: ild who wrote (59216)	4/23/2006 4:35:57 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Tim Duy's Fed Watch: I Need a Raise to Buy Gasoline economistsview.typepad.com Dr. Duy is an economics professor at the Univ. of Oregon. "Tim worked in Washington, D.C. for the United States Department of Treasury as an economist in the International Affairs division and later with the G7 Group, a political and economic consultancy for clients in the financial industry. In the latter position, he was responsible for monitoring the activities of the Federal Reserve and currency markets." We get to read his views for free!

To: ild who wrote (59216)	4/23/2006 8:56:26 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

thebulletin.org We estimate that as of early 2006, Russia has approximately 5,830 operational nuclear warheads in its active arsenal. This includes about 3,500 strategic warheads, a decrease of some 300 from last year's level due to the withdrawal of approximately 36 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) from operational service. Our estimate of operational nonstrategic nuclear weapons is 2,330 warheads, more than a thousand warheads fewer than our previous estimate (see "Russian Nuclear Forces, 2005," March/April 2005 Bulletin) due to a recount of operational launch platforms and Russian statements about reductions. Estimating the size, composition, and status of the total Russian nuclear stockpile has always been difficult due to the lack of official information. Based on the best available data, we estimate that the current stockpile of intact warheads is around 16,000. With just over one-third (about 5,800) considered active and operational, the balance occupies an indeterminate status. Some may be officially retired and awaiting disassembly; others may be in short- or long-term storage, similar to the U.S. categories of "responsive force" or "inactive reserve." Russian officials made several statements in 2005 about why Russia needs to maintain and modernize its nuclear forces. Following several embarrassing missile launch failures in 2004, Putin took a personal interest in improving the image of Russia's nuclear capability. "Large-scale, regular army and navy exercises have resumed after what was too lengthy a hiatus," Putin told the Russian Security Council in June 2005. On August 16, he flew aboard a Tu-160 Blackjack bomber and participated in the test-launch of a Kh-555 conventional cruise missile in the Arctic. [2] In December, Col. Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, chief of the Russian general staff, clarified Russia's strategic posture, telling Novosti that Russia "had long stopped preparing for large-scale nuclear and conventional wars. We will continue to prepare for the defense of our territory, but we will not be preparing for a war on foreign land." In a January 2006 Wall Street Journal op-ed, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov added his first priority "is to maintain and develop a strategic deterrent capability minimally sufficient for guaranteed repulsion of contemporary and future military threats." On December 24, 2005, Col. Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, the commander of Russia's strategic missile forces, reaffirmed another layer to Russia's posture. Amid a dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas supplies, Solovtsov told ITAR-TASS that Russia's "nuclear umbrella" defends "not only Russia but also all [Commonwealth of Independent States] countries, including Ukraine," an interesting statement given Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO. [3] Solovtsov also pointed to proliferation as a justification for Russia's nuclear arsenal, saying that "many countries are eager to come in possession of nuclear weapons; the nuclear club will be expanding." Russia's plans to develop its strategic missile forces will take "into account all these threats. We're working on new missile complexes and new types of equipment with completely new characteristics," he added. [4] As we predicted two years ago, the emerging U.S. antiballistic missile defense system has provoked a direct Russian response. [5] Missile defense appears to be a major part of Russia's decision to retain multiple-warhead ICBMs and to develop new weapons capabilities. In November, Solovtsov said that new warheads for silo-based Topol-M missiles (NATO designation SS-27) and mobile Topol-M1s (SS-X-27) are undergoing testing. [6] One type of warhead reportedly involved a maneuverable reentry vehicle known as "Igla" that changes altitude and direction to evade missile defenses. Indeed, at the December commissioning ceremony of the fifth Topol-M ICBM regiment at Tatishchevo, Solovtsov emphasized that the weapon "is capable of penetrating any missile defense system." [7] (Unidentified U.S. officials confirmed that the November 1, 2005, Topol-M test-launch had a shorter than usual boost phase, and that after being delivered into orbit, the reentry vehicle flew to a lower trajectory, where it was able to maneuver.) [8] continues....

To: ild who wrote (59216)	4/23/2006 9:39:17 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

the missile defense cannot threaten strategic balance, but then there is no point taking a chance either, and so build more rockets, make them big ones, and able to carry loads of hard goods call it insurance this is the pandora's box opened by folks who spoke earlier about pre-emptive this and lied about wmd that we are going down the road where we had gone before and russia, now actually stronger than ever, financed by .... hmmmn oil, gas, gold, and palladium, and not bogged down in afghanistan, even as it holds the gas whip hand over cowering and freezing europe perhaps this is what bush the 1st meant by the 'new world order' ;0)