Date: Wed Apr 26 2006 13:11
trotsky (@Continental Minerals) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
actually, at the moment the best way to buy KMKCF is via buying GCHA - the two companies are about to be merged, and GCHA trades a good deal below the value derived from the proposed share exchange ratio.
Date: Wed Apr 26 2006 12:46
trotsky (@p&d stocks) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
should one actually play in obvious pumps? i'm doing it sometimes with lunch money for the heck of it, although i never mention such stocks here out of embarrassment. there's always a great risk that one ends up a bag holder, but not if one catches an obvious pump early on in the game. one reason to consider such plays is that the returns can be significant if one is doing it right. often the distribution phase can be spotted via looking through the spam folder in one's e-mail inbox ( the mails breathlessly urging people to buy NOW, before it's too late, tend to proliferate close to the tops ) .
almost needless to say, this tends to work best in the silly stage of cyclical bull markets, when the concerted move into garbage is in full swing ( we ARE at this stage in the stock market right now, as the stocks with the worst fundamentals are so far the best performers this year, and otcBB trading volume has basically gone off the charts ) .
for longer term investment purposes, the 'silly stage' is a huge red flag - it shows that some sort of major stock market top is close by.
Date: Wed Apr 26 2006 12:35
trotsky (mugwump@ECPN) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i actually made a decent profit with that one, in the full knowledge that it is basically a press release machine, with nothing really tangible behind it. but i never expected this p&d pig to fly THAT high. it continues to vastly outperform most decent junior gold stocks with solid funnymentals, on nothing but hot air. amazing.
as a side note, the same promoters that are behind ECPN now also work for WITM. since they began their spiel, WITM has already more than doubled. if ECPN's run is any indication, a lot more can still be expected out of WITM ( note, since the ECPN promotion machinery has begun to be applied to WITM, we're literally drowning in glowing press releases ) . there may or may not be anything of substance ( substance meaning: economically viable orebody ) in WITM's main project, but that is actually irrelevant ( for now ) in view of the efficiency of the pumping.
Date: Wed Apr 26 2006 12:21
trotsky (doran, 7:27) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
“For the first time, this research shows support globally for some form of compulsory savings for retirement,” said Sarah Harper, director of the Oxford Institute of Ageing, which worked with HSBC on the “future of retirement” survey."
this is downright disgusting. the dumbing down of the sheep has reached uncharted proportions apparently. liberty and personal responsibility don't seem to be on anyone's agenda anymore. i hereby metaphorically spit on the survey respondents supporting this mad scheme.
Date: Wed Apr 26 2006 12:12
trotsky (@CBLRF) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i got previously stopped out of this one when it fell from grace ( at a considerable loss in percentage terms as it were ) , but Apollo got me to look at it again, and in view of the recapitalization i would have to agree that it once again looks like a decent speculation. the main point with Campbell is that the downside looks fairly limited at this stage, while the upside could be considerable if things work out well ( and why shouldn't they, at current metals prices? ) . this may well become Apollo's stepping stone to my personal 'hall of fame' - it's a gutsy bet, and one where i'm really beginning to like the shape of the risk/reward equation.
of course the stock will probably continue to be quite volatile, which may not be a bad thing if one is looking to buy some.
Date: Wed Apr 26 2006 11:38
trotsky (Wall Street and the home builders) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
an interesting factoid - in spite of the collapse in housing transaction volumes, and the huge spike in inventories ( created by speculators that are now trapped in overpriced houses and condos bought on credit last year at the mania's peak ) , Wall Street remains as sanguine as ever. the homebuilder stocks are the sector with the THIRD highest average analyst ratings, right after oil drillers and integrated oil producers.
there's a good chance as deteriorating earnings reports continue to come through in coming quarters, that WS will change its mind, which could put great pressure on these stocks. one often hears about heir low p/e's as a justification for buying them, but this is imo a misleading argument. first of all, cyclical stocks ALWAYS have low p/e's at the top of the cycle ( i.e., the best time to buy them is actually when their p/e's are HIGH ) , and secondly, their 'earnings' mask the fact that in the aggregate, they haven't reported a SINGLE quarter of positive cash flows in 5 years of boom ( in fact, the biggest RE boom EVER ) , and have expanded the debt on their balance sheets at a breakneck pace - mostly by buying extremely overpriced land for future development. a good microcosm of the prevailing insanity in land prices are the Las Vegas land auctions in recent years, where prices have gone parabolic ( for what is essentially a piece of desert ) .
Date: Wed Apr 26 2006 11:25
trotsky (@MRB - back of the envelope) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
MRB remains one of the most undervalued gold juniors BY FAR. by using new ( yet conservative, i.e. well below current metals prices ) inputs in the calculation, and making extremely conservative assumptions about valuations compared to peers, Steven Saville recently came up with about $6.30 per share as a fair value. this is assuming that Falconbridge plans to bring El Morro to production, which is a more than fair assumption at this stage. MRB thus remains a buy, and an excellent long term investment proposition ( provided the secular bull market in the metals continues ) . dyodd, etc...
Date: Wed Apr 26 2006 11:13
trotsky (@old non-gold fave CSTL) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
after not doing much for a long time, the stock is suddenly running again, after reporting yet another strong quarterly result. this is the umpteenth quarter in a row that the co. has reported stellar earnings ( i've stopped counting ) - and as an aside, it has $1.60 per share in net cash in the bank, and ZERO debt. it currently trades at a ridiculous $3.40 . it remains to be seen if this newest earnings report finally manages to change the perception of the stock. i've seen it happen before, in FORD ( Forward Industries ) - that one also reported great earnings for several quarters, and the stock was stuck at $2.50 for seemingly an eternity. then, suddenly, one of those quarterly reports attracted the attention of traders - inexplicably, as it were. then the stock increased about 15-fold in the course of one year. why this move started on the 6th good quarterly earnings report and not on the 5th or 4th, nobody knows for sure.
there is no guarantee whatsoever that CSTL will act in a similar manner of course - the similarities so far are only the good track record, the strong balance sheet, and a prolonged period of neglect by the stock market. the eventual outcome remains uncertain.
Date: Wed Apr 26 2006 10:29
trotsky (@pm sentiment) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the XAU p/c OI ratio has fallen to 1.06 post expiration, meaning there are now 106 puts out for every 100 calls in the 3 front months - still a bullish reading.
the Rydex pm fund suffered outflows again, a fairly large $7.25 m. yesterday, which suggests that short term oriented traders continue to doubt the current rally.
i'm happy to report that we're beginning to move up in the average analyst ratings game. the gold sector is now 'only' the 6th worst rated sector, with forest and paper, utilities, banks, disk drive makers and automotive rated worse.
how does this actually look in detail? there are 141 ratings altogether ( which is sort of middle of the road ) , of which 39.7% are 'buy' or better, 51.1% are 'hold' and 9.2% are 'sell' ratings.
this continues to leave quite a bit of room for upgrades.
for the sake of comparison, a brief look at the currently top rated market sector, which is the oil services sector ( i.e., drillers ) : 196 ratings altogether, of which 74% are 'buy' or better, 24.5% are 'hold' and only 1.5% are 'sell' ratings.
you could say Wall Street just LOVES the drillers, now that the oil service index has exploded to new high ground. almost needless to mention, they hated the drillers while they were cheap - the 'reverse supermarket syndrome' ( buy when things are dear, not when they are cheap ) that characterizes stock market analysis and identifies the analysis game as just as 'mood-driven' as all other decision-making processes in the stock market, which are generally dependent on EMOTIONS rather than rationality, and are an expression of the herding instinct.
this is also why fundamental analysis is often futile - the herding instinct is a psychological phenomenon, and in the case of the financial markets, it is largely rising or falling prices themselves that determine in which herd one can feel safe.
judging from the gold sector's average ratings, we are not a herd just yet - but no doubt we eventually will be.
|
