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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (195161)	4/26/2006 2:29:34 PM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

@Joe - Mix effects " True. But it has some effect on low end of Pentium / Athlon line as well. " I don't see a real correlation when you ask me ... " Even if not in direct reduction of ASP, it may end up with some buyers of low end of the Athlon / Pentium jumping to Celeron / Sempron. Just a speculation. " Why? The user buys not the CPU, he/she buys the package, so if Intel/AMD decreases prices by 10$ and the PC was sold for 399$, HP/DELL will sell (my guess) again for 399. ;-) So it would be additional margin. It will be a mixture, some bins will have near 0 margin and some higher end will have better margin, just because the price delta on CPU is smaller than the delta on the PC. Whether 10-20$ do a shift from mid to low-end I don't know. When you ask me, it doesn't have a effect in Retail - on the corperate side it depends more on service and additonal fea- ture or give-aways. So I don't see shift just from these action or they will be very minor. " I think Intel is trying to greatly reduce the premium of DC over SC (on the netburst line) in order to increase the ration of DC. " No question - thats the task force. He, when I would switch to 65nm I would do the same. So its not that rocket-science. " On the other hand, on desktop, AMD did not have the capacity to push this change in Q1, and probably still does not have this capacity in Q2, which is why Intel is pushing it, and why AMD DC premium is so high. " I made already a comment to this and I'm going with you. I see healthy growth rates at AMD in the DC space QoQ just in desktops, but from a still low-base. My own forecast is MINIMUM +50% volume increase DC from Q1->Q2. " I think AMD will have to reduce desktop DC prices, increase DC share of Athlon line. The end effect will probably be a wash - no gain or loss of ASP. " It seems to me, that everyone is lulled by the Intel price war topic. Why so naiv - sorry!? It isn't that easy also when most people do talk about this so easy, but they are mostly wrong. AMD of course has to increase DC as a % and they will do that, no question, is more a function of yields and add. FAB-space from FAB36 and Chartered. Also no rocket-science. Whether this effect is a net 0 an ASPs is hard to quantify and depends (as known) on Volume, MIX and Price. I can't say it often enough - just look at my old posts to ASP calc. To get a net 0 with higher DCs you have to lower DC segment ASPs by a heavy margin - take 50% or more. Is that your guess and how fast? " Going forward, though in H2, I think DC will be "standard", more or less, and at some point in the future, SC will become Celeron / Sempron only. " Joe, did YOU wrote this? Its clear that DC will become the "standard" in the future and after that QC will become the "standard" and after that ... and and and ... Whats your point? " AMD had a cautious outlook because Intel could go nuts. Intel is going nuts. " Could be and if this your guess, OK, be my guess and its reasonable to sell, but I can't count on this. BUGGI

To: Joe NYC who wrote (195161)	4/26/2006 3:27:05 PM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

Some Joe Osha comments from this morning, from Forbes: forbes.com AMD Makes Additional Gains On Intel Mary Crane, 04.26.06, 9:12 AM ET Advanced Micro Devices continues to gain market share against number-one Intel in the semiconductor industry, reports Merrill Lynch analyst Joe Osha in a Tuesday research note to investors. “While AMD’s unit share was flattish in the first quarter at around 21%, its revenue share increased at the expense of Intel.” AMD gained unit market share in Q1 and Joe knows it. That was the whole point of the exchange at Intel's cc between Michael Masdea (Credit Suisse) and Otellini. Otellini said Intel ASP's were down less than 5%, yet CPU revenues were down 14.9%, so a 4% ASP drop would indicate an 11.3% drop in CPU units at Intel. Meanwhile AMD CPG revenues were down <1% and ASPs up 7%, therefore units were down 7% (1.07x0.93=0.9951). So if AMD's market share was 21% in the 4th quarter, it was (0.21x0.93)/[(0.21x0.93)+(0.79x0.887)]=21.8% in Q1. So I guess 21.8% is "around 21%" at Merrill Lynch. Osha says AMD can expect to gain further market share in the second half of the year, especially in the server and desktop markets, benefiting from rising average sales prices for AMD microprocessors that are currently selling at close to $100. Amid overall declining desktop-processor sales, which decreased by 12%, quarter over quarter, AMD still managed to capture more than 20% of the market’s revenue share. AMD’s units declined less than the industry average, while its desktop unit share against Intel increased to 26% from 1% [sic -- "by 1%"], doing Intel the most damage in the high-end of the market. AMD’s progress in the server market “continues to be dramatic,” according to the analyst. The company’s server processor unit volume grew by 26% while the over all market declined by 6% quarter-over-quarter. AMD now holds 22% of the server market in terms of units, 27% of the market in terms of revenue and should have a technology edge on Intel in the server market through 2007, Osha says. Despite these gains, the analyst predicts Intel could regain some of its market share in the second half of the year and has already gained unit share in the notebook market with the launch of its third-generation Centrino notebook, codenamed Napa. Where does this come from? Didn't AMD claim just the opposite? Still, while Intel’s average sales price in the notebook market fell 3%, AMD managed to keep its revenue share flat due to a richer product mix. That accomplishment aside, Intel still maintains a solid position in the notebook market. Elsewhere in the sector, NVIDIA (nasdaq: NVDA - news - people ) maintained its overall share, Osha says. ----------------------------------------------------- mixed bag from Joe, but his backpedalling on calling Intel unit share "flat" bothers me. Petz