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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eracer who wrote (195163)	4/26/2006 2:40:28 PM
From: BUGGI-WO	Respond to of 275872

@Eracer " Here are your estimates for Q4: A64-Sempron-X2-Mobile-Server Q4: 5,5 - 5,5 - 2,5 - 3 - 0,7 = 17,2 " I said in the prior post already, these are not predictions, these are scenarios just to show the BIG-POINT -> ASP. I also said, that my X2 ramp-plan is low and the volumes could be MUCH higher today, so the future volume would be higher, if we assume the same growth. As I also said, I have tweaked my Excel sheets to reach the given ASP points in Q4 and Q1, so I had to lower X2 units. Whether this is/was cor- rect I don't know. Noone from outside of AMD could answer this question ... " According to Intel's roadmap ~80% of Intel's Q4 mainstream/performance desktop CPUs will be dual core while your estimates for AMD are roughly ~30%. " Whats mainstream and performance? This is Intel bla bla bla ... marketing blupp. The only number which counts for me is the % number for the whole desktop and I stand by my posted numbers. So your 80% number is a eye catcher just to show "how good Intel is", but why let Celeron out - isn't this also a Desktop unit? So I assume 35-40% DC at Intel in Q4 in the desktop-side (good for Intel) and let my own internal 30% number beside. " I feel your A64 and X2 numbers are nearly opposite of where they need to be in Q4. " Could be, but this doesn't make the point again. I made Scenarios in which the overall ASP would be stable, I posted some unit segment numbers with LOW % parts on the premium side (just to go even more safe) and calc. the needed segment- ASP - easy. When you think that AMD will deliver more DC, just do the math, the segment-ASP in the DC segment COULD FALL!!! even further (means more than 50% decline from today levels) just to HOLD!!! overall ASP levels (just under 100$). BUGGI