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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (60132)	5/4/2006 10:36:24 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 110194

Gold up DROOY down, can't wait till gold goes down and drooy goes down for my 4th 3rd. Date: Thu May 04 2006 10:21 trotsky (@pm sentiment) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved there hasn't been much change of late - XAU p/c OI is roughly in balance, which is unch. over the past few days. Rydex has seen a few days of outflows, and a few days of inflows, leaving the cash flow ratio stuck roughly around the same level as well. however, pessimism on individual issues has increased somewhat, with the current OI ratio of 0.61 bested by less than 4% of all readings over the past year ( i.e., it's higher than just over 96% of such readings ) . in short, there is no increase in irrational exuberance as of yet.

To: ild who wrote (60132)	5/4/2006 1:17:19 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu May 04 2006 12:13 trotsky (immigration and the stock market) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved immigration to the US tends to peak with a slight lead to stock market peaks, and bottom out with a slight lag to stock market bottoms ( also, child births are similarly correlated with stocks ) . this proves that attitudes toward immigration are the product of the same social mood that also determines whether stocks are in a bull or bear market. the currently increasing xenophobia that will likely lead to a tightening of immigration standards and intensify the already evident decline in immigration numbers ( the immigration peak led the 2000 stock market peak by a few years - this is a very long term phenomenon, it coincides with secular market moves ) is therefore a sign that the bear market that began in 2000 isn't over yet, and is indeed a secular bear that will last much longer - the current echo-bubble notwithstanding. the correlation of births to the stock market is even stronger - currently, a new 'baby bust' is underway, similar to the one that characterized both the 1930's and the 1970's secular bear. note that the 70's bear actually began in 1968, and that the stock market eked out a marginal new nominal high in early '73 in the course of it ( from this high, it plummeted a nominal 56% in less than two years ) . the emphasis is on 'nominal' as the purchasing power of money began to erode rapidly. in real terms, the '68 high was far away, just as the 2000 high for the Dow ( which is close to its nominal high of early 2000 ) is far away in real terms. the average stock portfolio continues to nudge big losses in real terms - the rally from the 2002 lows has dented them somewhat, but for mutual fund owners it has been a long 6 years of getting exactly nowhere. in this context, note that the proper determination of whether a secular bear or secular bull prevails can only be made by comparing stock market returns to money market returns. when money market returns beat stock market returns, you're in a bear, regardless of what the averages look like. ( this idea courtesy of Bob Bronson; work on demographics and the stock market has been done by Prechter, Bronson and Dent, whereby the latter seems to ignore the data ) .