Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (23868)	5/2/2006 4:13:21 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

My opinion is simple(I have been a real estate broker for 22 years in Hawaii). We are heading into a real estate recession. I have puts on JOE and DSL and hope to buy more on others. I expect JOE to hit around $40 by the end of summer. The real estate horror stories are, if anything, understated. Inventories are simply ballooning off the charts. Coupled with rising rates and over leveraged public the future looks bleak. You'd think the developers would be smart enough to know better but they have paid the most foolish prices for land at the top of the market...even more so than the public. Go figure. Nice call on RWC, btw. -g-

To: Paul Senior who wrote (23868)	5/2/2006 10:38:53 PM
From: muwis123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

Homebuilders - I saw a chart recently that showed, historically, the best time to buy the group has been when they are trading near book value. I guess investors figure that is a good proxy for liquidation value. Land on the balance sheet is valued at cost and in most cases below market value. WCI is an interesting name (also FL). It is trading at a discount to its forward book value assuming they can earn anywhere near what the Street expects. I would caution that demand in the first quarter has been weak and mgt doesn't expect a pick-up until the second half of the year. If the stock sells off, I would be a buyer.