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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (50522)	5/3/2006 11:57:19 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Still new filings are very low versus past history. We are only getting the party started as most folks bailed out the last few years by appreciation and lax lending..

To: mishedlo who wrote (50522)	5/4/2006 2:47:59 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 116555

Foreclosings in the SF Bay area are startiing from a VERY low base. For Santa Clara county, with 1.1 million people, the number for 2004 was under 30 or so. For 2005 it was like 5. Whole central SF BAY area for 2005 was likely way under 500 - this for 6 counties with about 5 million people. Defaults have been very low since 1999. You have to go back to the effects of 1998 Asia crisis to find reasonable numbers. So forecloseurs can double every year for the next 3 years... and the sky won't fall. Even a little. For the distant suburbs of Los Angeles - like Kingman, Arizona - it will be different ;-)