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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (50616)	5/5/2006 6:22:33 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

US Conservatives Abandoning Party, Raising GOP Fears:Poll (MASSACRE - that is a strong word - MASTER the moment - HAHA) WASHINGTON (AP)--Angry conservatives are driving the approval ratings of President George W. Bush and the Republican-led Congress to dismal new lows, according to an AP-Ipsos poll that underscores why the party fear an Election Day massacre. Six months out, the intensity of opposition to Bush and Congress has risen sharply, along with the percentage of Americans who believe the nation is on the wrong track. The AP-Ipsos poll also suggests that Democratic voters are far more motivated than Republicans. Elections in the middle of a president's term traditionally favor the party whose core supporters are the most energized. This week's survey of 1,000 adults, including 865 registered voters, found: - Just 33% of the public approves of Bush's job performance, the lowest of his presidency. That compares with 36% approval in early April. Forty-five% of self-described conservatives now disapprove of the president. - Just one-fourth of the public approves of the job Congress is doing, a new low in AP-Ipsos polling and down 5 percentage points since last month. A whopping 65% of conservatives disapprove of Congress. - A majority of Americans say they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control Congress (51% to 34%). That's the largest gap recorded by AP-Ipsos since Bush took office. Even 31% of conservatives want Republicans out of power. - The souring of the nation's mood has accelerated the past three months, with the percentage of people describing the nation on the wrong track rising 12 points to a new high of 73%. Six of 10 conservatives say America is headed in the wrong direction. Republican strategists said the party stands to lose control of Congress unless the environment changes unexpectedly. "It's going to take some events of significance to turn this around," Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. "I don't think at this point you can talk your way back from those sorts of ratings." He said the party needs concrete progress in Iraq and action in Congress on immigration, lobbying reform and tax cuts. "Those things would give the country a sense that Washington has heard the people and is responding in a way that will give conservatives a sense that their concerns are being addressed," Ayres said. Conservative voters blame the White House and Congress for runaway government spending, illegal immigration and lack of action on social issues such as a constitutional amendment outlawing gay marriage. Those concerns come on top of public worries about Iraq, the economy and gasoline prices. Hardline conservatives are not likely to vote Democratic in the fall, but it would be just as devastating to the Republicans if conservatives lose their enthusiasm and stay home on Election Day. AP-Ipsos polling suggests that Democrats may be winning the motivation game. Fewer voters today than in 2004 call themselves Republicans or Republican-leaning. In addition, 27% of registered voters were strong Republicans just before the 2004 election, while only 15% fit that description today. Democratic numbers are the same or better since 2004. Bush's strong suit continues to be his handling of foreign policy and terrorism, an area in which he modestly improved his ratings since April. Still, a majority of Americans disapprove of his performance on both fronts. It gets worse. Only 23% of the public approve of the way the president is handling gasoline prices, the lowest in AP-Ipsos polling. Those who strongly disapprove outnumber those who strongly approve by an extraordinary 55% to 8%. As for his overall job performance, history suggests that Bush's paltry 33% spells trouble for Republicans in the fall. In the past six decades, only one president had a lower job approval rating six months before a midterm election - Richard Nixon in May 1974, the year in which Watergate-scarred Republicans lost 48 seats in the House and four in the Senate. By November, Nixon was out of a job too, having resigned the presidency in August. Nearly half of the public strongly disapproves of Bush, a huge jump from his 5% strong disapproval rating in 2002. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Of all Republicans, nearly 30% disapprove of the job Bush is doing, including 13% who feel strongly about it. "Hopefully this is a wakeup call for my party to get out of its bunker and hunker mentality," said Republican strategist Greg Mueller, whose firm specializes in conservative politics. He urged his party to start criticizing Democratic positions on the Iraq war, immigration and the economy. "We've been like a punching bag," Mueller said. Democrats need to gain 15 seats in the House and six in the Senate for control of Congress, no easy task in an era that favors incumbents. (END) Dow Jones Newswires May 05, 2006 04:19 ET (08:19 GMT) Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 19 AM EDT 05-05-06

To: shades who wrote (50616)	5/5/2006 3:19:28 PM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Surge in Tax Revenue Cuts Federal-Deficit Projections By JACKIE CALMES May 5, 2006; Page A2 (WSJ) WASHINGTON -- A surge in federal tax revenue, mainly in payments from rich Americans, is driving down government and private-sector projections of this year's federal deficit to as low as $300 billion, well below current forecasts that are near or over $400 billion. The Congressional Budget Office "now expects that the 2006 deficit will be significantly less than $350 billion, perhaps as low as $300 billion," it said yesterday in a monthly budget report that reflected April's tax-time receipts. The CBO previously projected a deficit for this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, of $371 billion. The Bush administration's Office of Management and Budget, which had forecast a $423 billion shortfall, also will be reducing its estimate, government analysts say. The fiscal revisions, reflecting the economy's higher-than-expected growth, suggest a 2006 deficit coming in closer to last year's $318 billion, or even below it. That would be good news for President Bush and the Republican-led Congress. Preliminary reports of lower deficit numbers were being hailed in emails among Capitol Hill offices. But the brighter short-term outlook doesn't change long-run forecasts of unsustainable deficits as more Americans age and draw Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits. In its annual long-term outlook in January, the CBO wrote that spending for those programs "will exert pressures on the budget that economic growth alone is unlikely to alleviate. A substantial reduction in the growth of spending and perhaps a sizable increase in taxes as a share of the economy will be necessary for fiscal stability to be at all likely in the coming decades." The data indicate the gains from a strong economy are going largely to those at the top of the income scale. The revenue growth stems from nonwithheld taxes -- not federal taxes automatically withheld from most workers' paychecks. Nonwithheld tax payments mostly come from wealthy taxpayers with income from stocks, bonuses and other sources from which federal taxes aren't immediately withheld. Private-sector analysts, tracking the same monthly Treasury tax-collection data as government analysts, have been making similar revisions. J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, in an economic update yesterday, reduced its deficit forecast to $325 billion from $370 billion. It also cited a surge in nonwithheld tax payments with the April 15 income-tax filing deadline. "Much of the revision appears to be concentrated in income from the exercise of stock options," J.P. Morgan analyst Robert Mellman wrote in an investors note. He said a similar but smaller surge occurred a year ago at tax-filing time in April.