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To: LarsA who wrote (3917)	5/7/2006 12:31:48 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 9255

Why the hoopla about mobile in Africa and the Middle East now? Local going regional. Regional going continental, continental going Global. It is not the established OECD companies buying foreign assets. Causes: Saturation at home WTO ascension China factor Possible outcomes: China: Beijing has encouraged state owned companies to "Go Global" and expand overseas. (China was outbid by Etisalat UAE in Pakistan) Operators such as Celltel, MTN, Orascom or Millicom are being forced to jockey for position and consolidate and get big before the Chinese come out and gobble everything. National incumbent state-owned operators see enticing China into the competition would bring a lot of money. Governments: Regional governments being forced to open up markets to gain ascension to the WTO. This moves may give them the idea of a spectrum auction a la Europe (2000 tech bubble). This possibility should not be discarded to attract direct foreign investment Region regulation is in its infancy. Newcomers face an uphill battle to build new networks. If bad regulation switched off the lights in a sophisticated market like California. Imagine what bad regulation can in places like this region. Regulation may be sold as to benefits to the consumer, but in the end is used to benefit operators and their supplier and the Governments who do not want to lose revenues. Why establish rules to benefit a foreign entrant coming to eat into your revenue? Incumbents: Incumbents will react to this forced competition by establishing a clone of the incumbent to pretend there's competition. Case of DU in the UAE. MNVO could be an idea to create competition without harming the incumbent by establishing a token foot print and use national roaming. Incumbents which have Mobile, fixed lines plus broadband operations will push hard to tie the mobile users by offering bundled services broadband, mobile fixed to avoid churn MTN MTN moved in Iran due to political reasons. Turkcell thrown out because they did not support the regime. MTN has acquired a Middle East pedigree and feel more comfortable to go bold in this area of the world. If MTN can make half its profit in Nigeria, and be successful there it can be successful anywhere! ALL: Parking money in mobile assets in oil exporting countries since there's a possibility of a GCC pursuing a single currency, flotation and appreciation against the falling USD.