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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (50801)	5/9/2006 1:53:31 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 116555

>>So other than housing which has already taken a hit, where do you buy puts?<< Airlines make a lot of sense here..... DISCLOSURE: SHORT AMR.

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (50801)	5/9/2006 7:33:38 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 116555

i think mortgage related co stocks are just now peaking PMI, MTG, FNF, CFC for example might be good shorts s

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (50801)	5/9/2006 9:23:26 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Thge homebuilders haven't taken their hit yet. What has happened so far is only a light tap. WCI just reported great earnings for the quarter, but a 46% drop in new orders. Looking to load up off the suckers buying with no research. That trailing PE looks great! ;)

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (50801)	5/9/2006 10:23:12 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 116555

retailers are another place to look for shorts imo JCP, FD, COH, JWN .

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (50801)	5/9/2006 2:34:56 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Steve: Vix ratio still at historic lows which allows us to buy "time" at cheap prices. I like the home builders, HD, the mortgage providers and almost any tech-related companies (inventories and pricing woes combine nicely with generous PEs across the whole sector). My call of a couple of years ago was to accumulate junior golds that were (or are) adding to their actual reserves, based on my belief that the senior miners would want to buy them to increase their own crummy reserves. Delightfully this has happened in spades and has driven my main recco, Greystar Resources (GSL - TSE) from under a buck to $12. (and probably a bit higher yet via an expected near term bid). The other part of my gold strategy was (and remains) to buy a few senior miners every time the price of gold gets hit and then sell at the preceding high. That trade has been executed over a dozen times during the last two years and remains a part of my gold activity. Currently, I hold beaucoup cash for just this trade, in anticipation of a nice solid "correction" in the price of bullion. Hope this helps. Best, Earlie