To: CommanderCricket who wrote (64154 ) 5/11/2006 1:55:28 PM From: ChanceIs Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206093 >>>Watching the metals this morning and everyone looks to be parabolic..<<< Slightly OT: I had a chat with my guru at Schwab this AM, regarding interest rates. I think Ben Bernanke (BB) is far from done hiking rates. I don't think that BB knows or realizes that yet. At least he isn't letting on, although he certainly left himself wiggle room. I asked my guru what they were saying around the water cooler about BB and rates. Without hesitating he said, 'As long as commodities keep rising, BB has no choice but to march higher in lockstep.' It makes sense to me. Having said that, I want to thank whomever (Patron?) who pointed me over to the Residential Real Estate Crash Thread:Subject 51347 I have ben doing very well shorting TOL, WCI, JOE, etc. My bank with option ARM exposure short (DSL) has not been doing well, but it is just a matter of time if metals keep climbing. Lets talk about IQs. I'll bet everybody here took the SATs once upon a time. Fill in the most logical answer: The OSX crash is to June '01 as the Real Estate crash is to: a) tulips, b) irrational exuberance, c) May '06 d) greater fool. Continuing with the IQ theme, there has been quite a bit of speculation as to the intentions of Herb and Marion Sandler in selling Golden West to Wachovia on Monday. I venture to say that 70% of the financial press thinks that they are selling because its a top. I agree. At any rate, this is what Herb had to say regarding predicting interest rates: Herb: I also want to pick up on Marion's comment about forecasting interest rates. OK if I tell a story? Q: Sure. Herb: You know the story about Dr. Einstein when he died and went to heaven? One of his main concerns was: Would he have anybody to talk to? He's running around looking, and he finally saw somebody, and he said to the guy, "What's your IQ?" The guy said, "160." And he said, "Fascinating, now we can discuss physics and my theory of relativity." Then he walked a little farther, and he saw somebody and said, "What's your IQ?" The person said, "135." "Wonderful. We can discuss art, literature, music." Then he walked some more, and he saw somebody and said, "What's your IQ?" The guy said, "70." And he said, "So what's going to happen with interest rates?" That's how we feel about predicting interest rates. So I guess when I get my wings, Albert and I will be talking interest rates vice quarks. Ah well.