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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6322)	5/13/2006 8:00:28 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217792

TJ, Reading your weekly missives is the first thing I do Saturday mornings. (Well, almost the first thing. Some bodily functions just can't wait. <g>) Your sense of humor, writing style, and quiet, subtle genius give me such an uplifting start to the day [especially since my entire net worth is in precious metals (mostly paper) with homie shorts thrown in on margin]. But I have to tell you, today's missive is the best you've ever written. I feel on top of the world, properly positioned for TeoTwawKi.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6322)	5/13/2006 11:37:10 AM
From: critical_mass	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217792

and bonds will become a dirty word. This seems inevitable to me also. The funny thing is that the recent Commitment of Traders report show the commercial short on the 2 year, but long on everything else. 2 year: softwarenorth.net 5 year: softwarenorth.net 10 year: softwarenorth.net 30 year: softwarenorth.net Any idea what it means? BTW, I enjoy your blog. Was the "Kwiksilver" t-shirt on your daughter meant to be subliminal suggestion?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6322)	5/13/2006 10:09:24 PM
From: THE ANT	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217792

Jay thanks for your posts and blogs,they are great.I dont see gold going as high as you do in the short run.I wonder if half the dollar reset is not over, with another half to come,so maybe gold $1400 in the next 5 years.The middle class house across the street from me in Maryland goes for about $450K.A similar house in Brasil was about 50K three years ago and about 100K now.The engineer in the US house needs a salary that allows him to afford the mortgage and so he can not compete with the Brasilian engineer(or Russian,Indian,etc..).I figure with a 100% reset the Brasilians house is about $200K.With falling interest rates in Brasil maybe $250K.Now lets assume a 15% fall in US house prices so the US house is about $380K.The US engineer can probably compete.The fed at that point would have less interest in going on with its stealth(not on this board) inflation campaign. Also,I dont see housing going that low as the Fed can sit on short term rates and keep ARMs low.Of course the dollar will crash(100%reset)but they want that.Friedman had a recent editorial in the WSJ preparing us for this eventuality.When inflation goes up this will help wipe out mortgage debt as well as wipe out half the debt we owe to foreigners.The US will go back to investment in industrial production.Now throw in productivity growth as the developing world continues to come on line and technology improves,and we have a USA running in place for the next 10 years while the developing countries kick our butt.Still more optomistic than you are:)That being said I have almost no assets in the $ except in the airlines and most in Brasil(elmat so Brasileiro de coracao) ,so I hope to sit back and enjoy the ride with this board .Thanks again

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6322)	5/14/2006 2:52:14 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217792

Come on, TJ - "When debt is at 320% of US GDP" This from Al Gore ? Federal Debt 9 Trillion GDP 13 Trillion That's 70% - puts the US a little worse than Argentina. Debt as of 5/11/2006 (before the NSA opened their phone bill for caller id on everyone) publicdebt.treas.gov ************** U.S. GDP bounces back to 4.8% growth in Q1 - Friday, April 28, 2006 12:59:31 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The U.S. economy snapped back in the first quarter, growing at an annual rate of 4.8%, the fastest growth in more than two years, the Commerce Department said Friday The increase in the nation's real gross domestic product was close to market expectations of a gain of 4.9%, according to the survey of economists conducted by MarketWatch. The as-expected GDP report should have little impact on the views of growth and inflation at the Federal Reserve. A separate report from the Labor Department showing the slowest gain in employment costs since 1999 should encourage Fed officials that labor markets are not so tight that they are contributing to inflation. In nominal terms, GDP rose to $13.02 trillion annualized The economy has grown 3.5% in the past four quarters. The GDP had risen just 1.7% in the fourth quarter, held back by weak consumer and capital spending. Economists say the math of GDP made the fourth quarter look worse than it really was, while the first quarter wasn't quite as strong as it appeared. ************** 2005 list of debt to GDP. Note HK with 1.80 % someone's credit card ? US was 64%, now 70% Japan at 170% Germany at 68% - still paying to East Germany ? en.wikipedia.org