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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (51713)	5/13/2006 4:24:30 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312628

Page needs some re-writing after 3 years <ng> Am too lazy. Also, curently the OI of individual contracts has not sufficient history to hvae any statistical meaning. POS disconnecting from futures activity? That is where I guess the trust comes in. As it is an ETF, there is no uptick rule, so you could eventually play the free lunch: spreads between the ETF and the futures. The trust also can better be "black-boxed". Program trading now can more efficiently play the metal against the PM indexes or the currencies. They formerly had to play the futures, which is another pond where the sharks do not behave the same as those of the Amex. So, there has to be a "hedonic correction" to be applied to those charts. <vbg> And, yes, if that work on the OI still is valid, message is, prices up are less unlikely then prices down. Am just watching how the OI (total OI and commercial net shorts) behave at the lower end of the +2-2 standard deviation band. As always, comments based on the observation of OI on futures, never base you opinion on one indicator only. LOL. FWIW, OI on the Summer contracts always have been low. Once in June, the December contracts for both gold and silver contracts will be the next game to watch.